Crypto Market Braces for Impact: Trump vs. Harris and Bitcoin's Next Move

As the 2024 U.S. election draws near, the crypto community is abuzz, eagerly watching to see how bitcoin will respond.

The upcoming 2024 U.S. election is being closely watched by the crypto community, with many industry insiders sharing their perspectives on how bitcoin might fare in this dynamic landscape.

According to Kalshi bettors, as of 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Nov. 4, the odds of a Trump victory stand at 54%, while those for a Harris win are at 46%.

In its Alpha Report, released Monday, Bitfinex market strategists highlighted a “general consensus for markets that a Republican victory is good for risk assets, and less so if there is a Democrat victory.”

“We expect volatility to be high in the first 10 days of November, leading up to and following the election, with the possibility of either a sell-the-news event or a buying climax resulting in a large move up,” the Bitfinex analysis noted.

The report also pointed out that “low front-end volatility reflects a cautious market stance, while a last-minute surge in volatility indicates rising market activity as the election approaches.”

“If volatility remains subdued, however, it may signal a possible deeper correction for BTC on shorter timeframes,” the analysis adds.

In the options market, Bitfinex noted that “a general indifference toward price shifts typically suggests a bearish sentiment.”

“At the same time, altcoins are likely to stay subdued until U.S. election results roll in,” the Bitfinex analysis stated.

The report highlighted that the “Trump Trade” seems to be bitcoin-specific, while altcoins — particularly those outside the top 10 — are down roughly 45% from their March peaks, sitting at a $200 billion market cap as BTC edges closer to its all-time high.

“We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators,” the Bitfinex analysis noted.

“This general disinterest among investors suggests that upward momentum in altcoins is unlikely without a significant catalyst.”

In a market note shared with Bitcoin.com News, Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, offered his insights.

“I expect a 1.5-Sigma ($6k to $8k price range) as a result of the post-election price reaction,” Magadini wrote.

“Therefore major price levels are $60k (A Kamala win dip) or a $75k/$77k a Trump win that brings spot right back to the ATHs then THROUGH them, as election enthusiasm breaks the high seen last week.”

“Looking at the fixed strike volatility, we can see a larger negative skew with 60k Nov Puts around 102% IV and 80k at 91%,” the Amberdata executive added.

The anticipation around bitcoin and the election is also evident on social media, with crypto investor and X account Jelle telling its 93,100 social media followers:

“It’s election week. Historically, that means the best part of the bitcoin cycle is about to start.”

Given the historical data and expert analyses, the fate of the crypto market appears closely tethered to the U.S. political climate. The scenarios painted by market strategists suggest a dichotomy in potential outcomes, with a Trump victory possibly propelling bitcoin to new heights, while a Harris win might lead to a temporary retraction in price.

This pivotal moment in both political and economic arenas underscores the unique position of cryptocurrencies as not just financial assets but as barometers of broader socio-economic sentiments.

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