Polymarket Election Betting Platform Shows Kamala Harris With Microscopic Edge Over Donald Trump-web3.0-php.cn

Home

web3.0

Polymarket Election Betting Platform Shows Kamala Harris With Microscopic Edge Over Donald Trump

Linda Hamilton

Nov 04, 2024 pm 03:16 PM

TrumpHARRIS U.S. Election Day Voter Fraud

The most popular Polymarket bet has seen a flurry in trades ahead of Election Day, contributing to a surge of Harris' winning shares on the betting platform.

Polymarket Election Betting Platform Shows Kamala Harris With Microscopic Edge Over Donald Trump

Democrat Kamala Harris' perceived winning odds in the 2024 U.S. presidential election are rising on betting platform Polymarket, with users buying and selling hundreds of thousands of favored shares in a surge of market activity.

Polymarket is a blockchain-based betting marketplace where users can buy “shares” in the outcome of any prediction, winning USDC 1 per share if the outcome occurs. For example, if a Yes share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring.

Shares of Harris winning the election surged to over 44 cents ahead of Tuesday’s count, up from 33 cents on October 30. Republican Donald Trump's shares fell from 66 cents to 55 cents in the same period.

Bets above $10,000 and $100,000 increased over the weekend to above-average activity. Large holders of Trump and Harris' “yes” shares are offloading their shares amid the high demand, likely taking profits from the price rise in those shares over the past few months.

The increase in Harris' odds might be due to traders hedging their bets, per a CoinDesk analysis, with a study of trades above $10,000 suggesting both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a Trump loss.

Some market observers said the increase in Harris’ odds reflects hedging positions among traders who’ve also bet on a victory for her Republican rival Trump.

Reports of voting irregularities against Trump could further be influencing market bets, with rumors about voting and fraud — which if true would favor Democrats — flooding social media over the past week.

Well-known political bettor “Domer” said in an X post Sunday that they give Harris a 55-60% chance of becoming the next President, factoring in various polls and voter behavior trends.

The Polymarket whale pointed out that contrasting early voting trends show Republicans voting early more than Democrats, which could imply either strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior.

Moreover, post-2020 election results have not favored Republicans as expected despite President Joe Biden's challenges with his approval rating, suggesting a potential mismatch between current polls and actual voter sentiment or outcome.

The above is the detailed content of Polymarket Election Betting Platform Shows Kamala Harris With Microscopic Edge Over Donald Trump. For more information, please follow other related articles on the PHP Chinese website!

Statement

The content of this article is voluntarily contributed by netizens, and the copyright belongs to the original author. This site does not assume corresponding legal responsibility. If you find any content suspected of plagiarism or infringement, please contact admin@php.cn

Is it soaring when it is removed from the shelves? ALPACA Alpaca's Counterattack Password with Gate.io's Encryption 'Survivor Oasis'May 15, 2025 pm 05:15 PM

How can a "abandoned" carnival achieve the 15-fold myth of 24 hours? When Binance announced that it would remove ALPACA, the market asserted that the marginal token with a market capitalization of less than 10 million US dollars would die. However, the plot suddenly reversed within 48 hours of countdown - the price of ALPACA soared from the lowest point of $0.066 on April 29 to $1.2, with a single-day increase of more than 15 times. This "dormal wheel"-like madness not only subverts the negative logic of traditional finance, but also exposes the deep rules of liquidity migration and human nature game in the crypto market.

What is strategic Bitcoin reserve? Real-life cases of Bitcoin reservesMay 15, 2025 pm 05:12 PM

Strategic Bitcoin reserves are the practice of governments, businesses and institutions incorporating Bitcoin into financial strategies for reserve. Some people believe that this approach can help fight inflation. Due to the limited supply of Bitcoin, it is more likely to maintain purchasing power in the long run. Despite the risks of Bitcoin’s price volatility and security, its potential as a long-term valuable asset is gradually gaining wide recognition. What is strategic Bitcoin reserve? Real-life case introduction to Bitcoin reserves Just as central banks in various countries reserve gold or foreign exchange, more and more people regard Bitcoin as a valuable asset that can be held for a long time. With the increasing popularity of digital assets, the strategic reserves of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have become financial

How to tell when cryptocurrencies reach their peak? Top technical analysis indicators for popular marketsMay 15, 2025 pm 05:09 PM

Table of Contents Top Technical Analysis Indicators Relative Strength Index Pi Cycle Top Indicators Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index Bitcoin Rainbow Chart At a Look At Equilibrium Table When and How to Make a Profit? Combining multiple indicators backtesting top signals Like most financial instruments, cryptocurrencies rarely experience sustained growth. Ultimately, most cryptocurrencies will reach market saturation, or market sentiment will change significantly, causing their value to fall. Ideally, traders would seek to buy at the "bottom" and sell at the "top". In fact, this means buying at the lowest possible price and selling at the highest possible price. The difference

What is ZORA Coin? Log in to Binance Alpha and airdrop, what is the future potential of ZORA coins?May 15, 2025 pm 05:06 PM

Table of Contents ZORA Coin Latest News and Updates What is Zora? Who founded Zora? How does Zora development team and investment in Zora work? What is ZORA Coin? ZORA Token Economics ZORA Token Airdrop Zora (ZORA) Future Outlook Summary Zora was originally an Ethereum-based NFT platform that allows users to purchase, sell and create NFT collections without paying transaction fees. With continued development, the project has transformed into a social platform and continues to enhance creativity by allowing anyone to easily convert their content into tradable currencies. Due to Base Meme Coin Incident, Zora

Announcement Gate.io futures function is abnormal! Official: Upgrading and repairingMay 15, 2025 pm 05:03 PM

According to community returns, after 17:00 this afternoon, the Gate.io exchange system failed, and some users' futures accounts showed that the assets were zeroed, or they could not place an order. It will be announced later at 17:50 that due to the high congestion of the system, the system will undergo a brief upgrade. Some of the current faults have been repaired. If there is any update progress, it will be announced separately.

Arizona, the United States, has submitted a Bitcoin reserve bill for the governor to review! Can it be passed this time?May 15, 2025 pm 05:00 PM

However, according to the latest information of the Arizona Senate, the parliament has approved the Bitcoin Reserves Act SB1373 and has been sent to Gov. Katie Hobbs for final review. It is stated that the bill aims to establish a fund composed of parliamentary grants and digital assets seized by the state and is managed by the state’s treasurer. The difference between SB1373 and the previous veto bill SB1025 The strategic reserve fund for digital assets planned by the SB1373 Act stipulates that state treasurers must use secure custody or ETFs to deposit digital assets, and the investment in any fiscal year shall not exceed 10% of the total fund. In addition, lent digital assets are allowed to generate returns, but risk management is required

I understand that Japan sells US debts in April! Arthur Hayes: Rise of the yen will drive Bitcoin to riseMay 15, 2025 pm 04:57 PM

According to data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, private institutions, including Japanese banks and pension funds, sold $21.1 billion in long-term foreign bonds in two weeks in April, and many analysts believe a large part of them may be U.S. Treasury bonds or U.S. institutional bonds. Is Japan selling US bonds crazy for the purpose of rebalancing the funds? Or is the yen arbitrage closing trading reopened? BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes happily said that this will drive a big rise in Bitcoin. Japan sold US bonds in April, according to the Financial Times, private institutions including banks and pension funds sold $17.5 billion in long-term foreign bonds in the week ended April 4, and over the next seven days

Dubai Family Office MBS spent 8.8 billion US dollars to explain in detail! To build Maldives into a blockchain, cryptocurrency and financial centerMay 15, 2025 pm 04:54 PM

Honeymoon resort and top vacation paradise Maldives, may soon be replaced by a brand new sign - cryptocurrency will replace sunshine and beaches, becoming the new ace to attract global attention. MBS Global Investments, a family office based in Dubai, announced plans to invest $8.8 billion to build a "blockchain and digital assets" financial center in the Maldives. This huge investment case will not only help the Indian Ocean island nation get rid of its high dependence on tourism and fishery, but it is also regarded as a lifeline to alleviate the country's debt pressure. MBSGlobalInvestmen