According to an OTC (over-the-counter) dealer, Celestia’s over $1 billion worth of TIA token unlock might not experience as intense sell pressure
An OTC (over-the-counter) dealer has suggested that the sell pressure following Celestia’s (CRYPTO: TIA) upcoming token unlock may not be as intense as anticipated.
According to an analysis by Stix, a crypto OTC firm, only half of the total TIA tokens, around 92.3 million, are currently unstaked and available for immediate sell-off.
The remaining tokens will be gradually unlocked over the next several months, reducing the overall sell pressure in the spot market.
“We’ve summarised that a total of 92.3M $TIA will be liquid post unlock, which would act as the upper bound of overall spot selling pressure,” the analysis noted.
At current market prices, the maximum sell pressure would equate to roughly $460 million.
Interestingly, this figure is less than 50% of the total cliff unlocks, suggesting that the sell pressure will be significantly lower than anticipated.
“This equates to a max selling pressure of ~$460M. What is also interesting here is that this accounts for
Impact on TIA price
Commenting on the potential impact of the unlock on TIA price, the analysis suggested that it could be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
As more shorts were opened during the first unlock, their closure would lead to increased buying activity in the spot market, partially offsetting the sell pressure.
“We expect a lot of these shorts to continue winding down, partially negating the spot-selling pressure. This funding reset may be a bull signal for spot buyers,” the analysis noted.
Several users on Telegram also expressed a bullish outlook for TIA.
One user highlighted the potential for any price dips to serve as favorable re-entry points for long positions, especially in light of Celestia’s role within the ETH modularity narrative.
“With unlocks getting absorbed by the market and shorts starting to cover, it could be one of the best entries on $TIA for those bullish on the ETH modularity narrative,” one user noted.
Another user, Simon Dedic, a partner at crypto VC Moonrock Capital, acknowledged the potential for short-term volatility in TIA but emphasized the overall bullish setup.
“While we might see volatility in the short term, this could ultimately be a huge bullish setup. With Celestia positioning itself as the go-to data availability layer, $TIA might just be setting up for its own $SOL-like move,” Dedic noted.
However, Ignas, a DeFi analyst, cautioned against dismissing the possibility of an extended market bleed-out.
He also pointed to the ongoing FUD surrounding Celestia, which claims that the project has only generated $15K in revenue since its launch in October 2023.
“An extended bleed-out can’t be ruled out, especially with the FUD around Celestia generating only $15K since debut,” Ignas noted.
At the time of writing, TIA was trading down 1.6% at $5.04 over the past 24 hours. The token has risen 21.5% in the past week, and it’s up nearly 100% year-to-date (YTD).
Technical analysis of Celestia (TIA) price shows a key short-term support level at $4.5, which has halted recent pullbacks since early September.
Any crack below this support could drag TIA to lower support at range lows around $3.5.
On the upside, a breakout past $5.2 could lead to a rally toward the next resistance at $6.1, followed by highs of $7.2 and $8.
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