The 350K New Addresses: The Key Bull-Bear Level

The recent market activity witnessed by Bitcoin (BTC) exemplifies the need for fresh buyer participation, as new addresses still lag far behind the 350,000

Recent Bitcoin (BTC) price action highlights the importance of new buyer participation, as new addresses continue to lag significantly behind the 350,000 mark that is crucial for maintaining strong bullish momentum.

As pointed out in a tweet on X by Burak Kesmeci, recent data shows that this figure acts as a pivotal pivot point between bullish and bearish trends.

350K New Addresses: The Key Bull-Bear Level

An analysis of the past six years shows that 350,000 new Bitcoin addresses often act as a dividing line between market phases. When the number of new addresses falls below this level, the market tends to turn bearish.

This pattern can be observed in the historical data of 2018, when Bitcoin dropped from $19,000 to $6,000; 2021, when it fell from $64,000 to $30,000; and 2024, when it decreased from $74,000 to $49,000.

In June 2024 the number of new addresses dropped to 210,000 and then increased to 349,000 on October 14, 2024. Pulling back to 294,000 it has since indicated a need of more new investors to push market momentum.

To continue a strong bullish trend and reflect increased investor interest, we consider the 350,000 milestone as a major pivot, and one that once reached, may lead to a market upturn.

Spot ETFs Impact Address Creation

The launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 has had an effect on address growth. As institutions like BlackRock manage Bitcoin through pooled addresses, the number of new individual addresses is impacted.

ETF investors are usually represented by one wallet address, which reduces the growth rate of new addresses. Therefore, achieving 350,000 new addresses will require more retail investors, who are key to sustaining market growth and overcoming potential resistance.

BTC Netflow And Holding Trends

The latest BTC net flow data, as shown by IntoTheBlock, reveals a mixed market behavior. Over the past seven days, net flow dropped by 338.80%, indicating substantial BTC outflows from exchanges, which suggests increased long-term holding.

Over 30 days, net flow rose by 329.48%, reflecting selling pressure or profit-taking. However, over the last 90 days, net flow decreased by 139.33%, showing an overall trend of Bitcoin moving off exchanges.

As Bitcoin's price shoots up to $67,523 before stabilizing around $67,000, this net flow behavior mirrors what is happening in the market. Long-term holding is supported by net outflows but it’s important to beat the 350,000 new address mark to continue with stronger bullish momentum.

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