ETH/BTC May Have Bottomed, But ETH/USD May Still Decline, Cowen Market Analyst Says

Cowen explained that the logarithmic regression band is designed to gauge an asset's fair value using data that excludes speculative bubbles.

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Josh Cowen has shared his analysis of the ETH/USD and ETH/BTC charts, suggesting that the former may still have some downside left while the latter has likely bottomed.

Cowen’s analysis is based on the logarithmic regression bands, which he uses to determine an asset’s fair value by excluding data that is influenced by speculative bubbles.

According to his analysis, ETH/USD is still trading above these bands, indicating that it may be overvalued and could experience some further decline.

On the other hand, ETH/BTC has already reached these bands, suggesting that it may be fairly valued and could begin to appreciate from current levels.

“The logarithmic regression bands are designed to gauge an asset’s fair value using data that excludes speculative bubbles.

This pattern is repeating now as the Fed begins to cut rates, and ETH/USD is trending downwards, likely continuing into Q4.

However, while ETH/BTC bottomed in September 2019, ETH/USD continued to decline.

This time around, it’s possible that a market bottom for ETH/USD could be forming in Q4.”

Cowen also highlighted the significance of the ETH/BTC pair, noting that it bottomed before ETH/USD in the previous market cycle.

He observed that ETH/BTC reached a market bottom in September 2024, which aligns with the timeframe for the broader market bottom.

“Keep in mind that in 2019, ETH/BTC found its bottom before ETH/USD did.

That bottom occurred in September.

Interestingly, the current low for ETH/BTC is also in September 2024.

It might dip slightly lower, but I don’t expect a significant decline.

I can see it finding a bottom soon, bouncing back, and potentially rising in 2025.”

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