Ethereum Eyes 10% Drop as Exchange Balances Reach 4-Week High, TVL Underperforms Solana

Ethereum has had a turbulent start to the week, and data suggests that further declines may be on the way.

Ethereum's price dropped sharply on Monday as selling pressure mounted and on-chain metrics suggested a further 10% drop could be imminent.

What Happened: As Bitcoin's momentum stalled and dropped below immediate support levels in recent hours, selling pressure on Ethereum increased. This downward trend is reinforced by various on-chain metrics, which now point to a potential sharp drop for Ethereum in the coming hours.

According to data from Coinglass, Ethereum liquidations have surged significantly, surpassing $42.7 million in total. Of this amount, approximately $40 million resulted from the liquidation of long positions. A bearish indicator is the increasing supply of ETH on exchanges.

According to additional data from CryptoQuant, Ether balances on exchanges reached a four-week high of 15.8 million ETH on October 21. The net balance between inflows and outflows among centralized exchange wallets shows a sharp increase between October 15 and October 20, when deposits to trading platforms began to surge.

An increasing ETH supply on exchanges suggests that investors are transferring their tokens from self-custody wallets to exchanges, indicating an intention to sell.

Additionally, since mid-June, Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) has been decreasing, as shown in DefiLlama's chart below.

The TVL on the layer-1 network dropped from a year-to-date peak of $66 billion on June 3, declining 57% to $42.3 billion by August 5, before rising to the current level of $48 billion. Additional data from DefiLlama indicates that Ethereum's TVL has decreased by over 2% in the last 30 days, underperforming other top layer-1 protocols like Solana, which has seen a 22% increase in TVL during the same period.

The rising TVL in Solana reflects traders' interest in its DeFi ecosystem and highlights Ethereum's inability to attract new users due to its relatively higher transaction costs, especially for those looking to launch new projects.

This has intensified bearish dominance in Ethereum's price chart, pushing the price toward a potential 10% drop.

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