BTC Price Can Drop 75% From Here, Legendary Trader Peter Brandt Warns the Bitcoin Community

Renowned trader Peter Brandt brought to the attention of the Bitcoin community an important historical trend. In his post on the X platform, Brandt highlighted the concept of “market analogs,” pointing out that it has been 30 weeks

The BTC price encountered strong selling pressure once again, quickly diving to the support levels of $58,900 following news of hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation data. Although Bitcoin has since recovered to levels of $60,600 at press time, legendary trader Peter Brandt has highlighted the possibility of a 75% correction ahead. In the meantime, investors are still holding out hope for a China stimulus to the tune of $283 billion, expected to be announced this weekend.

BTC Price Could Drop 75% From Here

Renowned trader Peter Brandt recently brought an important historical trend to the attention of the Bitcoin community. In his post on the X platform, Brandt highlighted the concept of “market analogs.” He pointed out that it has been 30 weeks since Bitcoin (BTC) last reached its all-time high (ATH).

According to Brandt, in the previous instances where BTC failed to decisively make a new ATH within this time frame, the flagship digital asset encountered a significant decline of over 75%. Hence, if the historical pattern were to repeat itself, there is a high probability of another such decline on the horizon.

Hey Bitcoiners

Are you familiar with the concept of "market analogs?"

Here is something to think about

It has been 30 weeks since $BTC made an ATH

Whenever has not made a decisive new ATH within this time length a 75% decline has occurred pic.twitter.com/CUyK4C2W93

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024

Brandt’s recent observation spooked some Bitcoin enthusiasts, who pointed out how he was proven wrong during his 2023 prediction. In response to this, Brandt wrote: “I am always amused by people who confuse a market observation with a market opinion. Drivers who cannot turn their heads in both directions always end up in an accident.”

It's interesting to note that just two days prior, the renowned trader predicted that the Bitcoin price could reach levels of $130,000 within the next year.

However, the market sentiment is currently leaning toward the bearish at this moment, especially against the backdrop of the much-anticipated ‘Uptober’ rally. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have encountered three consecutive days of outflows, which could be signaling that institutional sentiment is waning in the wake of the hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation for September.

Furthermore, the notion of a strong Bitcoin halving year is not playing out so far as per the historical trends. Hence, the BTC price is staring at the longest consolidation in history during a halving year.

285 days have passed in 2024. If there is no #Bitcoin bull market within the next 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways in a halving year in history. pic.twitter.com/JWHkgHC27C

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 11, 2024

Will $283 Billion China Stimulus Help?

The latest Bloomberg report suggests that China is preparing for another $283 billion stimulus by this week to shore up its economy and boost consumer confidence. Analysts are expecting China’s finance minister to announce this stimulus in a briefing on Saturday. Notably, Chinese stocks witnessed a strong rally after a week of holiday, quickly losing momentum and sparking speculation of another fiscal China stimulus.

The focus of any fiscal package will signal the government’s economic direction, following years of debt-driven growth through investments, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, regardless of the package’s size. Speaking on the matter, Pushan Dutt, professor of economics at INSEAD, stated:

“The stimulus should be multi-year and targeted to households and not restarting the real estate investment-led growth story. It is the focus of the stimulus rather than the size that is important.”

While the Chinese stock market soared in October, the BTC price did not meet expectations. It seems that the stimulus measures have been sucking out liquidity from the crypto market and moving to the Chinese market. Hence, the next China stimulus might not be as bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins moving ahead.

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