Bitcoin (BTC) May Experience Extended Consolidation Phase Lasting up to Nine Months, Market Analyst Benjamin Cowen Says

According to market analyst Benjamin Cowen, Bitcoin's price may experience an extended consolidation phase lasting up to nine months.

Bitcoin price may be setting up for an extended consolidation period that could last up to nine months, according to market analyst Benjamin Cowen.

Cowen had earlier predicted that BTC could consolidate in the short term after he described the crypto as having reached a mid-cycle top earlier this year. He first shared this analysis back in April and said that Bitcoin would go through 6 to 9 months of consolidation. This is a time-based pattern that is similar to previous cycles.

As the six-month minimum has now been reached, Cowen further argues that external factors, possibly a labor market shock, could prompt further falls in prices. This could take Bitcoin price to the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), thus extending the consolidation period to 2025.

Bitcoin price recovered from the 24-hour low of $60,803 with strong support. As the price rallied up, it encountered resistance at the high of $62,465. However, at press time, BTC price showed a gain as it traded at $62,060, up by 2% from the support level.

The global economy has been a major driver of Bitcoin in the past few months. The latest US payroll data indicated that 254,000 new jobs were created in September, more than the market forecast and enhancing the position of the US dollar.

Up to now, Bitcoin has been seen to have an inversely proportional relationship with the US dollar; therefore, when the dollar is strong, the price of Bitcoin goes down. Nevertheless, the existing market environment seems to diverge from this trend.

The “Milkshake Theory” could be another reason for this trend, which affirms that higher US interest rates and better economic performance lure foreign capital, therefore boosting the dollar. At the same time, concerns over the economic slowdown, especially in Japan, have led to the anticipation of further economic expansion measures.

El Salvador is not backing down on Bitcoin, even with the pushback from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In a statement, Juan Carlos Reyes, President of the National Commission on Digital Assets (CNAD), said that legislators had approved changes to the CNAD law.

These changes empower the commission to oversee the operations of the Bitcoin companies in the country. The CNAD will now regulate the Bitcoin ecosystem of El Salvador and will regulate companies while implementing a risk-based regulatory system.

In the opinion of Reyes, this move places El Salvador on a path to be the world’s leading nation in digital asset regulation. The team would consist of individuals with a knowledge of regulations plus individuals familiar with Bitcoin.

Even with the IMF’s warnings, El Salvador seems set on continuing with its Bitcoin plan. Julie Kozack, head of the IMF Communications Department, again stressed that the IMF told El Salvador to avoid overexposure to Bitcoin and increase regulation of this activity.

However, there are people in the crypto industry who have urged the country to ignore such worries.

Bitcoin price recovered from the 24-hour low of $60,803 with strong support. As the price rallied up, it encountered resistance at the high of $62,465. However, at press time, BTC price showed a gain as it traded at $62,060, up by 2% from the support level.

BTC/USD price chart (source: TradingView)

On the BTCUSD price chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shifted above its signal line indicating a building of bullish momentum.

Moreover, with the histogram in the positive region, buying pressure is increasing. This move is a precursor to a bull rally. In addition, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is in the positive region, with a rating of 0.23 backing the increasing buying pressure.

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