Bitcoin (BTC) 'Uptober” Off To A Patchy Start, But Bulls Remain Hopeful For A Turnaround

Bitcoin (BTC) has faced a rough start to the historically bullish month of October, impacted by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, bulls remain hopeful for a turnaround later in the month.

Bitcoin (BTC) had a rocky start to the typically bullish month of October, impacted by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, traders remain optimistic about a later recovery in the month.

Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ begins with mixed signals

The premier digital asset by reported market capitalization had a volatile entry into its historically most bullish month since 2013. The chart below shows how October has been the best performing month for Bitcoin, yielding a median return of 21.2%.

Yesterday, BTC briefly dropped below the critical $60,000 level before recovering to trade at $61,179 at press time. During this seesaw price move, BTC saw liquidations of over $32 million, while ETH liquidations were slightly above $18 million.

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has fallen by 6.9%, while major altcoins have seen even steeper losses. Ethereum (ETH) is down 11.2%, Solana (SOL) has dropped 10.9%, and BNB has declined by 9.9%.

According to CoinGlass data, most of BTC’s price appreciation usually occurs in the latter part of October. The chart below highlights that the initial days of October have historically been less favorable for BTC’s price.

Interestingly, October 1 has been positive for Bitcoin only once since 2013, while October 2 has shown gains five times out of eleven. In contrast, later dates, like October 28, have delivered positive returns nine times out of eleven, followed by October 20, which has had eight positive days out of eleven.

It’s also noteworthy that Bitcoin’s worst performing month, September, closed with a gain of 7.29% this year, marking its best performance since 2013.

Multiple factors influencing Bitcoin’s price action

Bitcoin experienced its fourth halving in April 2024, followed by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts in September, two events that are typically bullish for BTC’s price performance.

However, rising geopolitical escalations have taken precedence over these positive developments and the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the hotly contested US presidential election in November 2024.

That said, some crypto analysts are bullish about Bitcoin later in the year. For example, a Standard Chartered analyst sees BTC’s drop below $60,000 as a great buying opportunity.

Similarly, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen sees “exceptionally high” potential for a crypto rally in Q4 2024. Some of the factors behind this prediction are the falling Bitcoin dominance and the rise in Ethereum gas prices.

On the other hand, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that interest rate cuts could lead to a short-term market crash. BTC trades at $61,179 at press time, up 2.2% in the last 24 hours.

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