Methane Emissions Rising Faster than Ever

A perspective article published earlier this week in Environmental Research Letters, alongside data in Earth System Science Data, revealed that concentrations of methane in Earth's atmosphere have been rising at a record speed over the past five years.

Climate change is a pressing issue, and its effects are being felt worldwide. As we reported earlier this year, climate change made the summer of 2024 the hottest on record globally and for Europe. This calls for efforts to stabilize the climate by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, benefitting both the climate and our health.

Greenhouse gasses are those gasses that trap heat in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the prominent of these gases and is released by as a result of burning fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, and oil as well as trees and solid waste and as a result of certain chemical reactions such as cement production.

Another example of greenhouse gas is nitrous oxide (N2O). It is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities during the treatment of wastewater and the combustion of fossil fuels. Fluorinated gasses, meanwhile, are emitted from a variety of household and commercial applications.

Methane (CH4), on the other hand, is emitted during the production and transport of oil, natural gas, and coal. However, a vast majority of CH4 emissions actually come from human activities or “anthropogenic” sources like landfills, land use, livestock, and other agricultural practices. Natural sources like termites and wetlands, too, are also responsible for CH4 emissions.

Now, let's take a closer look at methane emissions, which are rising globally and presenting a major obstacle to solving the climate change problem.

Methane Emissions Rising Faster than Ever

A perspective article published earlier this week in Environmental Research Letters, alongside data in Earth System Science Data, revealed that concentrations of methane in Earth's atmosphere have been rising at a record speed over the past five years.

The papers are the work of the Global Carbon Project, an initiative tracking greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.

While over 150 countries have vowed to reduce methane emissions by 30% this decade under the Global Methane Pledge, that hasn't really been happening. This global commitment was launched in 2021 by the EU and the US.

On the contrary, global methane emissions—two-thirds of which now come from human activities, including agriculture, fossil fuel use, landfills, and other waste—are actually rising faster than ever.

The trend “cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate,” wrote the researchers in the paper.

Atmospheric concentrations of CH4 are currently more than 2.6x higher than it was in pre-industrial times. In fact, it is right now the highest they've been in at least 800,000 years.

The trajectory of rising methane emission rates is the most extreme one used by the world's leading climate scientists in emission scenarios. At this rate, it would lead to global warming above 5 degrees Fahrenheit or 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

While methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas, as we noted above, it is highly potent, making it a prime target for limiting global warming in the near term.

As a result, there has been a growing policy focus on methane emission reduction, but that hasn't really had any effect, as the total annual methane emissions have actually increased by 20% over the past two decades. Human contribution to the same has been the most at about 18% while natural sources, mostly from wetlands, only increased by 2% in two decades.

The 61 million-ton increase in CH₄ emissions has been primarily driven by oil and gas production and use, along with coal mining, whose emissions rose by 33%. Decomposing food and organic waste in landfills saw a 30% rise, while emissions from agriculture increased by 14%. The biggest human-connected source of methane emissions, Jackson noted, is cows.

Who's Leading the Rising CH4 Emission

When it comes to countries that are contributing the most to methane emitters, China (16%) ranks first.

As the lead author of the Earth System Science Data paper, Marielle Saunois of the Université Paris-Saclay in France noted the largest regional increases in CH4 emission comes from China and Southeast Asia.

A separate study by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) recently warned that China's expansion of coal mines could further increase its methane emissions and threaten climate targets.

In 2023, China's coal production reached a record 4.7 billion tonnes, about 50% of global output. Now, the country is planning a project to increase production capacity by 1.2 billion tonnes annually. This expansion can increase methane emissions by 10 million tonnes.

While China continues to invest in coal for energy and maintains a set of “inactive but operational” mines for urgent needs, the permits for coal-fired power plants dropped by 83% this year. This signals a possible shift in the country's energy policy.

China is now followed by India (9%), the United States (7%),

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