Polymarket Bettors See 84% Chance of Donald Trump Starting His Own Token

The bump came as Trump said he would launch the family-helmed World Liberty Financial project on Monday.

Betting markets are now pricing in an over 84% chance that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will launch his own token before the November elections.

The odds in the “Will Trump launch a coin before the election?” market on decentralized betting platform Polymarket were just 40% on Thursday and 16% a month ago.

That seemingly changed in the past 12 hours as Trump confirmed a launch date for the Trump family-helmed World Liberty Financial crypto project. The market has attracted over $1.7 million in bets by Polymarket users as of Friday.

It will resolve to “Yes” if conclusive evidence emerges that Trump is involved in “deploying a new token” by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

That means mere plans or confirmation for the token will not resolve the market to “Yes.” It will have to be an actual token issued on a blockchain in a way that can be verified by all.

A copy of the World Liberty white paper seen by CoinDesk states plans for the project to issue a non-transferable governance token called “WLFI.” However, it remains unknown what specific part Trump plays in the project and his role in issuing the proposed token.

Still, some Polymarket users are taking their chances.

“The development team already launched multiple test tokens on Ethereum,” user “Car,” who holds over 4,400 yes shares, wrote. “Funnily enough, that's enough to resolve this market to YES.”

“Non-fungible tokens are indeed Tokens,” another user, “563defi,” who holds 6,600 yes shares, said, referring to Trump’s lineup of NFT projects.

Those on the other side of the bet remain skeptical: “Even if a token launches, it will be his son's,” user “Tenebrus7,” who holds 2,000 “No” shares, wrote. “After the scam - trump will not want to be associated with it anytime soon.”

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