Bitcoin [BTC] Market Cycle is Only Halfway Through, On-Chain Metrics Suggest

Bitcoin [BTC] has been on a slow downtrend since early June when it began to register lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart.

Bitcoin [BTC] price has been trending in a slow downward trend since early June, when it started recording lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. However, CryptoQuant Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin is still “mid-cycle.”

Source: Ki Young Ju on X

In a post on This was not a bullish development and it took a surge from US investors to push Bitcoin to its peaks.

AMBCrypto then used on-chain metrics to determine whether the cycle was actually only halfway or completed, and the results were promising.

Profit-taking behavior has long-term bullish implications

Source: CryptoQuant

UTXO age bands showed the percentage distribution of the valve performed between different UTXO age bands. Here the graph represents the ratio of realized cap of spent and carried UTXOs.

3 month to 2 year UTXO ages have sharper peaks and troughs at different parts of the cycle. Towards the market peak, these age bands decline rapidly, forming bottoms roughly around the market peak.

The subsequent bearish trend sent them climbing higher, indicating that more holders are re-entering the Bitcoin market as buyers.

Among the cycle peaks, a shallower peak and trough lasting several months can also be seen. This does not represent a cycle top, but it does indicate that owners think this is a top. We can see this in October 2013, October 2016 and April 2020.

The previous two peaks came a few months after the BTC halving, showing another wave of accumulation around the halving that would lead to a breakup after a bull run.

So, a similar peak in the months after the April 2024 halving would mean that the cycle peak is about a year away.

Puell Plural and timing of the BTC market

Source: CryptoQuant

The Puell multiplier can outline market tops and major selling pressure from miners. Like the UTXO bands, it formed peaks between cycles to signal that miners were taking profits before the halving to stay involved.

Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2024-25

The most recent peak occurred in March 2024, again confirming the idea that Bitcoin's current cycle is only halfway complete.

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