Bitcoin (BTC), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Helium (HNT) – Weekly Market Analysis – September 15th, 2022

A mixed week of emotions as we witness Bitcoin move 3% to the upside on Monday, and then back the other way on Tuesday where it currently trades at $57,200

Bitcoin began the week strong, rallying 3% on Monday to reach highs of $59,000. However, the primary cryptocurrency lost ground on Tuesday morning, dropping to lows of $56,800. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $57,200, down 1.5% from the aforementioned highs.

What Caused This Volatility?

It’s hard to pinpoint precisely, but weak manufacturing data from the US, released at midnight on Tuesday, may have triggered concerns that economic growth is slowing due to efforts to control inflation.

Additionally, the upcoming interest rate meeting on September 18th is adding to the uncertainty. Jerome Powell has confirmed that a rate cut will happen, signalling a more dovish approach. So the market could be reacting to both the expected easing of rates and fears of weaker growth simultaneously.

Jobs Data Making Waves

Overnight, we have seen a surge in volatility, which could have been partly the result of poor job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US. The forecast was for 8.09 million job openings for the reported month; however, the actual figure was 7.67 million.

The impact of Jobs data does not stop there this week. Non-farm employment change will be released tonight at 10:15 pm AEST.

Volatility could be expected again should results land outside of the forecast.

My Personal Take

From here, I would not be surprised to continue to see chop and volatility as the market tries to make sense of good and bad news landing simultaneously.

Bitcoin – BTC 4 Hour Chart Analysis – September 14th

Bitcoin began the week strong, rallying 3% on Monday to reach highs of $59,000. However, the primary cryptocurrency lost ground on Tuesday morning, dropping to lows of $56,800. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $57,200, down 1.5% from the aforementioned highs.

After rallying into the opening price of last week, and continuing higher throughout Monday and Tuesday morning last week, we saw the bulls finally get exhausted at the $63,000 resistance, and begin to sell into the highs.

This selling pressure resulted in a breakdown from the bullish structure, and ultimately saw lows of $55,000 being reached on Wednesday morning last week, before a recovery took place.

Since our last Bitcoin analysis, we can see that overnight, the Current Range lows were swept, and the daily close occurred back inside the channel. From what we know, below are two potential outcomes from these events.

Bullish Scenario

Buyers have stepped in at these range lows, and accumulated. This would next result in a push above $63,000 USD – the midpoint of this multi-month trading range.

Bearish Scenario

Sellers remain in control in the absence of buyers at these prices, and we could see a breakdown below $55,000 USD.

My Thoughts

As mentioned last week – with the quarterly close at hand, we have historically seen volatility spikes around these periods of the year.

We really need the dust to settle and start to see some more technical confirmations to be confident in a trend shift.

Dogwifhat – WIF 4 Hour Chart Analysis – September 14th

Personally, I’ve been observing which assets have shown the most strength compared to Bitcoin during periods when the market has rallied in the last two weeks. Dogwifhat has been on my list, up 13% in the last 30 days.

After rallying from lows of $1.13 in June, WIF has rallied over 200% to reach highs of $3.63 last week. Since then, we have seen a period of consolidation begin to form on the 4 hour price chart.

Bullish Scenario

While there is much left to be desired technically to be bullish, we are seeing some buying at the bottom of the current price trading range. If we hold these lows (in purple), prices could then move towards the Fibonacci targets above.

Bearish Scenario

Failure to hold these support levels could mean new lows under $1.39.

Helium – HNT 4 Hour Chart Analysis – September 14th

Another on my list has been Helium – when we look at a Fibonacci scale measurement, it’s far more mature than WIF – currently knocking on the door of the golden fib level where we like to see breakouts form. After rallying from lows of $4.07 in June, HNT has rallied over 150% to reach highs of $10.07 last week. Since then, we have seen a period of consolidation begin to form on the 4 hour price chart.

Bullish Scenario

Continuing to trend higher and get above the golden Fibonacci ratio

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