2024 年 NFL 赛季终于拉开帷幕，随之而来的是一波兴奋。为期一季的奇幻选秀即将结束，现在每个人都将注意力转向分差和幸存者池。每周，我们都会深入研究，找出选秀联赛的最佳选择，并制定出应对幸存者形势的获胜策略。
2024 年 NFL 赛季终于拉开帷幕，带来了一波兴奋和期待。长达一季的奇幻选秀即将结束，现在每个人的注意力都转向了分布和幸存者池。每周，我们都会对名单进行详细分析，以确定选秀联赛的最佳选择，并概述导航幸存者景观的获胜策略。
粉笔
很多人在讨论pick'em pools时都会陷入细节之中，往往忽视了大局。虽然选择正确的游戏固然重要，但这些池子的博弈论方面却经常被忽视。选号池既关乎 X 和 Os，也关乎概率和策略。每周，我们都会分析公众的选择趋势，并利用这些洞察来指导我们的决策。
卡罗莱纳黑豹队 @ 新奥尔良圣徒队 (-4)
本周公众对圣徒队的信心更多地是由卡罗莱纳州的缺陷驱动的，而不是对新奥尔良的坚定信念。圣徒队整体上是实力更强的球队，他们的防守排名前十，上赛季场均只失分 19.2 分，而黑豹队的防守在各个方面都很脆弱。德里克·卡尔在四分卫位置上也提供了明显的优势，能够利用卡罗来纳州缺乏防守压力和组织能力的优势。投注趋势也凸显了这种差距，本周超过 90% 的精选投注有利于圣徒队，这反映了卡罗莱纳队的挣扎，因为他们在过去 9 场比赛中，有 8 场在客场处于劣势，未能弥补差距。
本周不适合逆势而为；在本赛季晚些时候会有更好的机会逆向发展。
亚利桑那红雀队对阵布法罗比尔队 (-6.5)
公众对本周布法罗比尔队对阵亚利桑那红雀队的信心源于两支球队之间明显的不匹配。比尔队以乔什·艾伦（Josh Allen）带领的强大进攻阵容进入，预计他在传球和冲球方面都将超越凯勒·穆雷（Kyler Murray）。红雀队经历了一个糟糕的赛季，他们的防守继续陷入困境，并在客场面临重大挑战。我们在这里处于相似的位置。今年晚些时候，当你试图赶上pick 'em时，也许你会在这里乘坐飞往亚利桑那州的飞机，但现在你想随波逐流。
最喜欢的抛硬币
每周，我都会重点介绍我最喜欢的对决，其中两支球队在公共池中的选秀率都没有超过 60%（如果可能）。从长远来看，这些比赛是选秀联赛获胜的关键。你可能会时不时地碰上大弱者，但从长远来看，在这些被认为更接近的对决中占据正确位置可能是一个巨大的优势。
达拉斯牛仔队对阵克利夫兰布朗队 (-2.5)
这个游戏是我们最接近掷硬币的游戏，但仍然存在很大的差距。本周超过三分之二的选秀权将来自达拉斯。这是一个很好的杠杆点，如果你选择克利夫兰，你可以在你的池中的其他条目中获得一点优势。布朗队的防守已经很稳固，但随着扎达柳斯·史密斯、达尔文·托马斯和胡安·桑希尔的加盟，他们今年可能会成为一支真正的力量。在很多情况下，布朗队的防守线都会扰乱牛仔队，从而赢得比赛。如果德肖恩·沃森能够履行他的承诺，这可能是你在联盟三分之二的比赛中获得积分的地方。
幸存的幸存者
幸存者池是一个独特的战略挑战，错误的重点可能会导致提前退出。许多参与者都非常注重在赛季后期拯救强大的球队，但如果你忽视了自己所处的一周，这种策略可能会适得其反。毕竟，幸存者池的基本原则是生存。
前三名
第一周提供了一组相对清晰的顶级幸存者选择，其中三支队伍脱颖而出，成为最佳选择。排名榜首的辛辛那提猛虎队是最受青睐的球队，他们在对阵新英格兰爱国者队的比赛中以 9 分优势领先。爱国者队在进入新赛季时遇到了很多问题，包括四分卫的不确定性以及经过彻底改革的阵容中缺乏成熟的组织者。孟加拉虎队在乔·伯罗 (Joe Burrow) 的带领下强大的进攻使他们的比赛变得安全。
The Buffalo Bills are the next most popular survivor pick, favored by 5.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals. The Bills offer a great blend of safety and strategic value; while they are not the most popular pick, they still have a strong win probability, making them a reliable choice. Arizona’s roster instability, combined with Buffalo's home-field advantage, makes this a straightforward pick that provides a good balance between safety and long-term planning.
The third option is the Seattle Seahawks, who are slightly less popular but offer significant value for those looking to save top teams like the Bengals for
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