Bitcoin Spends 133 Days in the Range of $58k to $65k, Mimicking the 2020 Cycle When BTC Spent a Prolonged Period Around $9k

Samson Mow recently stirred discussion on X by declaring that “$58k is the new $9k” for Bitcoin. Intrigued by this bold statement, we decided to put Mow's theory to the test by examining Bitcoin's trading patterns, especially in light of its historical price behavior.

Samson Mow, the former Blockstream CSO, recently made waves in the crypto community with his bold declaration that “$58k is the new $9k” for Bitcoin. Intrigued by this statement, we decided to put Mow's theory to the test by examining Bitcoin's trading patterns, especially in light of its historical price behavior.

Since reaching its all-time high of approximately $73,000 in March, Bitcoin hasn't seen much price volatility, dipping to a low of around $49,000 on Aug. 5. Coincidentally, this was roughly the same price as when the Bitcoin ETF launched in January.

However, to fully grasp these price movements, we need to zoom out and analyze them within the context of longer-time frame trends. This approach helps us identify key support and resistance levels that have played a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin's price action over the years.

After examining these trends closely, we noticed that Bitcoin spent a prolonged period trading around the $9,000 level from June 2019 to September 2020. This price range, which spans approximately 12% of the prevailing market value at the time, proved to be highly significant.

Even during the COVID-19 crash, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to $4,000, it quickly rebounded and returned to the $9,000 range. This resilience within a specific price zone highlights its importance as a critical support level.

To compare this period with the current price movements, we analyzed Bitcoin's price over the past 300 days, using roughly a 12% price range to maintain consistency across different price levels.

Our findings revealed that Bitcoin spent 183 days in the range of $8,860 to $9,968 and 160 days between $7,875 and $8,859. Currently, Bitcoin has spent 133 days trading between $58,374 and $65,671.

With 50 days until Oct. 9, the start of the fourth quarter — a traditionally bullish period for Bitcoin — market observers are keeping a close eye on these price movements to see if history will repeat itself and validate Mow's assertion.

The fourth quarter of 2020 was marked by a rapid ascent in Bitcoin's price, which began from the $10,000 to $11,000 range and culminated in the all-time high of around $42,000 on Dec. 29.

If we apply Samson Mow's formula to these price movements, taking into account a 12% price range, then the fourth quarter of 2022 could potentially see Bitcoin reaching a high of approximately $78,000.

While this analysis provides an interesting perspective on Bitcoin's price movements, it's important to note that crypto markets are inherently volatile, and any price predictions should be approached with caution.

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