Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple has not placed additional orders for the iPhone 16 series, but the estimated stocking volume is 87 million units

IT Home News on July 19, Tianfeng Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo issued an investment briefing today, saying that after WWDC 2024 Global Developers, there were reports from time to time that Apple would increase orders for the iPhone 16 series. However, in view of the Li Guang's supply chain news suggests that Apple has not placed additional orders.

According to supply chain news, there are no additional orders

In the investment presentation, Ming-Chi Kuo briefly attached the information of two key Apple suppliers, TSMC and Largan. Response message:

1. TSMC: We did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased.
2. Largan: This year’s orders for high-end models are similar to last year.

Analysis of the reasons for additional orders from some supply chain manufacturers

Ming-Chi Kuo believes that for Apple’s iPhone 16 series models in the second half of the year, some suppliers have indeed encountered additional orders However, from an EMS/assembly perspective, iPhone 16 orders in 2H24 did not change much (approximately 87 million units), which is still slightly lower than the order volume of iPhone 15 in 2H23 (approximately 91 million units).

IT House quoted Ming-Chi Kuo’s view that if the order trends of TSMC, Largan and assembly manufacturers are consistent, the trend should be quite reference; as for the increase in iPhone 16 orders from some manufacturers, it may be due to the Specific reasons related to individual industries or components.

“Apple Intelligence driving iPhone 16 sales” remains to be seen

The launch of Apple Intelligence is widely cited as the reason for increased iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence is currently only available as a beta version for US users to test in the second half of the year, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English.

Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (this is another big issue), consumers are expected to buy the new iPhone 16 in 2H24 for the beta version of Apple Intelligence. Too optimistic.

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