Bitcoin Mirrors 2008 Gold Rush, Consolidate Preceding a 180% Rally, Predicts Analyst

Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, draws striking parallels between the current market behavior of Bitcoin and the historical performance of Gold

In the latest edition of the Capriole Investments newsletter, founder and CEO Charles Edwards draws striking parallels between the current market behavior of Bitcoin and the historical performance of Gold, particularly during its 2008 rally.

Bitcoin’s Consolidation Mirrors 2008 Gold Rush

Edwards points out that Bitcoin has been consolidating around $60K, which echoes the pattern Gold followed before its significant rally. “Bitcoin is under pressure, mirroring the longest period of consolidation at any ATH in its history,” Edwards notes, suggesting that this could be a precursor to a major breakout. He adds that this pattern closely mirrors that of Gold in the late 2000s, when it consolidated for nine months around its 1980 ATH before launching a major two-year rally in 2008.

Edwards elaborates on the technical similarities, noting, “Gold’s first significant consolidation post-ETF launch preceded a rally that saw its value climb by 180% in just over two years. Today, Bitcoin exhibits similar market behavior in the aftermath of its own ETF launches and consolidations.”

Bitcoin’s 33% Dip Matches Gold’s Generational Bottom

Edwards also highlights that during Gold’s consolidation phase in 2008, the asset underwent a -33% drawdown, which eventually marked what many investors consider a generational bottom in the asset’s multi-decade bull market. Bitcoin’s recent dip to $48,000—a -33% crash—strikingly aligns with this aspect of Gold’s historical price action.

“The July 2024 Bitcoin dip saw a -28% drop to $53K, and the more recent August 2024 dip mirrored Gold’s final plunge, falling a mere half a percent short,” Edwards states, highlighting the precision of these parallels.

Based on these historical parallels, Edwards predicts that Bitcoin price could be “ripping straight to $140K with no dips by around May 2025.” He adds that while a single datapoint does not mean that gold’s history has to repeat for Bitcoin, he believes that it is “the most comparable asset at the most comparable time in its history.”

Despite the bullish signal from the historical and technical analysis, Edwards remains only cautiously optimistic. He points out ongoing discrepancies in fundamental data signals and suggests a conservative stance until further bullish confirmations can be observed.

“We are still awaiting the Monthly close; the conservative position would be to await further bullish confirmations (and potentially Q4) to fully clear what is typically the most bearish period of each calendar year for Bitcoin and risk assets,” Edwards notes.

If Bitcoin can close above the monthly support, Edwards sees a “very attractive technical setup.” He concludes, “I believe this period of market consolidation is coming to a close as we exit summer, and I maintain strong conviction that the next 12 months will be the best time out of the last 3 years to be allocated to this asset class.”

At press time, BTC trades at $60,712.

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