Arthur Hayes Predicts the Start of Altcoin Season as Bitcoin and Ethereum Surpass Key Price Levels
- 王林Original
- 2024-08-14 18:38:15731browse
Historically, the start of an altcoin season, or ‘altseason,’ a period marked by the strong performance of alternative cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, often begins following a significant increase in BTC's price.
The start of an altcoin season, a period marked by the strong performance of alternative cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, is often preceded by a significant increase in BTC’s price. This phenomenon has been highlighted recently by Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom Fund, who has now shared the specific time when the alt season for this cycle could begin.
According to Hayes, altcoins are set to begin their next major rally once Bitcoin and Ethereum cross certain key price marks. In his latest substack blog post, Hayes suggests that for altcoins to start moving up, BTC must break above $70,000 and ETH has to cross $4,000.
Hayes points out that alt szn will only return after Bitcoin and Ether decisively cross $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. Solana will also climb above $sol250, yet the crypto market-wide wealth effect of a Solana pump is nowhere near as potent as with Bitcoin and Ether, given the relative market caps. The combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soiree.
Besides sharing his alt season starting forecast, the BitMEX co-founder also disclosed some potential catalysts that could play a major role in these upcoming market rallies. Hayes connects these imminent market movements to macroeconomic factors, such as the issuance of US Treasury bills (T-bills). He argues that these could introduce new liquidity into the crypto markets, propelling Bitcoin towards the $100,000 mark within this cycle.
This anticipated flow of funds is expected to benefit Bitcoin and have a significant positive impact on Ethereum and, by extension, the broader altcoin market.
At the end of the note, the BitMEX co-founder touched on the US debts and reiterated his $1 million prediction on Bitcoin, noting that once the debt ceiling charade is over, liquidity will gush from the Treasury and possibly the Fed to get markets back on track. Then, the bull market will begin for realz. $1 million Bitcoin is still my base case.
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