Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: $60K Region May Be Hard to Hold as Key Metrics Lack Confidence

Bitcoin (BTC) holders faced a rough period last Monday as the price crashed from $61,000 to $54,000 within a few hours. This decline, tagged as one of the worst days for BTC this year, caused massive losses and liquidations.

Bitcoin (BTC) price crashed from $61,000 to $54,000 in a matter of hours on Monday, kicking off a brutal week for the cryptocurrency.

This rapid decline, touted as one of the worst days for BTC in 2024, led to massive losses and liquidations as the coin’s value plummeted by about $7,000. However, the coin has since managed to reclaim the peak it lost during this downturn.

Now, as BTC price attempts to stabilize following this sharp decline, on-chain metrics and institutional capital flows suggest that the coin’s price may still be at risk of another downturn.

Bitcoin Holder Net Position Adds to Bearish Bias

A key metric that points toward this bias is Bitcoin’s Holder Net Position Change. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are accumulating more coins or reducing their exposure to a cryptocurrency.

When this metric increases, it indicates that holders are buying more BTC, which could lead to an increase in the price. Conversely, a decrease suggests that these long-term holders are cashing out, putting downward pressure on the coin's price.

According to Glassnode, long-term holders have been selling some of their coins since August 5. Despite the rally that BTC experienced in the spot market, this group of holders still parted ways with 4,881 BTC on Saturday, August 10.

? Related Reading: Who Owns The Most Bitcoin In 2024? Another factor that suggests a decrease in the coin’s price is the net outflow from the Bitcoin spot ETFs.

During the trading sessions of last Wednesday and Thursday, the 12 Bitcoin ETFs collectively registered inflows. But on Friday, these financial products recorded a netflow of -$89.73 million, indicating more outflows than inflows, according to SoSoValue.

A wave of inflows into these ETFs was crucial to Bitcoin’s run-up to its all-time high of $73,750 in March.

Moreover, institutional capital was also shown to be playing a role in propping up BTC’s price during the second quarter of the year, as highlighted by the chain analysis.

During that period, billions of dollars flowed out of these ETFs, coinciding with a notable drop in BTC's price.

Hence, if the inflows remain negative as a new week begins, BTC may find it difficult to hold on to the $60,000 zone.

BTC Price Prediction: $61,000 Is A Weak Level

BTC is currently trading at $61,122. However, on the daily chart, the cryptocurrency is approaching a supply zone that ranges from $61,616 to $62,477.

If Bitcoin does eventually enter this zone, it could be met with resistance, potentially leading to a decrease below $60,000.

Furthermore, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still in the negative territory despite the mildly bullish cues. The AO measures short and long-term price movements to gauge momentum.

A positive reading on this indicator suggests that momentum is bullish and the coin's price may increase. Hence, the negative reading at the time of writing indicates that the momentum is bearish, and a decrease could be imminent.

While BTC may not experience a double-digit correction, the coin’s price could drop to $60,499 in the short term. ? Related Reading: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024, 2025, 2030 However, an increase in ETF inflows, coupled with a surge in long-term holder accumulation, could invalidate this thesis.

If this occurs, Bitcoin's price may instead rally toward $63,205 or $67,058.

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