Bitcoin (BTC) Retraces to the $49K Price Channel, Closely Resembling the 2015-2017 Halving Market Cycle

The ongoing Bitcoin post-halving decline closely reflects the patterns observed during the 2015-2017 halving bull market cycle, suggesting a similar trajectory.

Veteran market observers have noted a striking historical resemblance, suggesting potential insights into the asset's future trajectory.

Bitcoin Historical Post-Halving Declines

In a recent update, veteran trader Peter Brandt shared market data showing that the latest Bitcoin retracement closely aligns with the 2015 to 2017 halving bull market cycle.

The data highlighted that the second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, 2016. During the halving week, BTC closed at $650. However, the premier cryptocurrency dropped to a low of $470 weeks later, marking a post-halving decline of 27%.

Brandt's graph indicated that Bitcoin faced a resistance barrier at $790, which it had to overcome to enter new price territory. It ultimately surmounted this hurdle and established a new cycle high at approximately $20K by 24 weeks a year after the having.

In the third halving cycle, Bitcoin only dropped 10% post-halving before creating a new all-time high at around $69K by 25 weeks a year after the having.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has already tanked by 26% in the current cycle, as in 2015/2017. Bitcoin is still within its halving year and has already spent 16 weeks consolidating.

It continues to battle a significant resistance barrier at $73,800 and has failed multiple times to defend the $70K threshold once it re-entered.

Bitcoin Resistance Barrier

Notably, 6.96 million wallets hold 3.75 million BTC within the price range of $62,344.91 to $72,500. This range represents the largest cluster of holdings among all Bitcoin holding thresholds, making it a significant barrier.

Some commentators have challenged Brandt's observation, highlighting several key differences, such as Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before its recent halving, which deviates from past trends.

Additionally, the current global recession indicators are cited as a unique bearish pressure for Bitcoin in this cycle.

At press time, Bitcoin has settled at around $52,023, relaxing from the intense volatility experienced earlier today.

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