Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis: Will the Rally Continue as Token Unlock Looms?

Ripple's (XRP) price has been trending upwards, rising by 10% since yesterday after being locked in a symmetrical triangle for 12 days.

Key Takeaways

Despite being anticipated to decrease ahead of the scheduled 1 billion tokens unlock, XRP’s price has instead risen by 10% since yesterday, fueled by bullish investors’ sentiment.

However, the price movement is now expected to be impacted by the token unlock.

bullish

Rising hopes of a settlement in the SEC’s case against Binance have emerged. The latest development in the case suggests that the court may be able to avoid determining whether ten tokens, including Solana (SOL) and Polygon (MATIC), are currently unregistered securities. This shift in the narrative could also be a positive sign for Ripple’s case, which is closely followed by the crypto community.

As鹽南Korean traders’ enthusiasm continues, XRP trading volume has surged on domestic crypto exchanges this week, reaching up to 40% on UpBit and over 35% on Bithumb and Korbit. This unusual occurrence is also driven by local media coverage.

Meanwhile, on global platforms like Binance and OKX, XRP trading volumes rose but remained lower than those of BTC or ETH. The surge in XRP trading also coincides with announcements from CME and CF Benchmarks regarding new indices and reference rates for the token.

Bearish

According to姗蒂曼特data , the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP has increased dramatically. These large wallets, categorized as “shark” and “whale” addresses, have surged in the past five weeks, reaching 279,400. Throughout 2024, there has been a strong correlation between these large wallet holdings and XRP’s market value.

Ripple’s (XRP) price fell to $0.38 on July 5, marking its lowest point since March. It then rebounded, rising 67.50% to $0.63 by July 17 before dipping to $0.54 on July 19. By July 25, it had climbed back to $0.62 but encountered resistance at this level.

Our analysis anticipated a downward breakout from the symmetrical triangle, which would have completed the second sub-wave correction of a higher degree. However, XRP continued to rise, reaching $0.658, which is slightly above the level seen on July 17. This price movement is now counted as the fifth wave of a lower degree count.

Typically, a symmetrical triangle signals a potential breakout in either direction. In this case, we expected a downward breakout due to several factors, including theịp即将到来’s 1 billion XRP tokens will be unlocked on August 1.

Contrary to our expectations, XRP continued to rise, reaching $0.658, which is slightly above the level seen on July 17. This movement is now counted as the fifth wave of a lower degree count, suggesting that the uptrend that began on July 5 is still ongoing.

However, the upside potential may be limited, as this could be the final wave of this cycle. The next likely target for XRP could be around $0.75, corresponding to the previous macro high reached in mid-March. Once this uptrend concludes, we could see the onset of a corrective second sub-wave, which we initially expected to have completed.

If this scenario plays out, it would confirm the start of a new bullish phase for XRP, potentially targeting liquidity above $1 by the end of this cycle.

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