After touching $70,000, the price dropped by $4,000. The bull just left?

Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

Bitcoin has once again experienced a roller coaster market.

OKX market data shows that at around 21:00 last night, BTC once again exceeded 70,000 USDT after more than a month, reaching a maximum of 70,050 USDT. However, just as the market was speculating on whether this would be a harbinger for BTC to reach new highs, BTC suffered a rapid and significant correction. As of 10:00 today, BTC once fell below 66,000 USDT and was temporarily trading at 66,175.1 USDT, a 24-hour drop of 3.51%.

The situation of ETH is slightly different. It may be affected by events such as the implementation of ETFs and grayscale outflows. The rise of ETH before BTC broke through 70,000 USDT was not ideal, but perhaps the market is looking forward to a potential inflow/outflow turning point. ETH’s correction this time is not too obvious. As of 10:00, ETH was temporarily trading at 3299.2 USDT, still recording a weak increase of 0.67% in 24 hours.

The trend of the altcoin market is relatively noteworthy. Changed from the previous practice of "when BTC rises, the altcoins remain unchanged, and when BTC falls, the altcoins collapse". During this sharp correction of BTC, altcoins generally did not experience a major correction. Most currencies The 24-hour declines of all kinds were smaller than that of BTC, and some altcoins such as PEPE, AAVE, and LDO even recorded positive values ​​for the time being.

Alternative data shows that although today's Panic and Greed Index is still in a "greedy" state, the value has dropped from 74 to 67, and the decline will be significant.

In terms of derivatives data, Coinglass data shows that US$197 million was liquidated across the entire network in the past 24 hours, the vast majority of which were long orders, amounting to US$140 million. From the perspective of currencies, BTC liquidated positions at US$87.1446 million, and ETH liquidated US$51.5846 million.

BTC: The correction is expected, institutions and miners are still optimistic

First of all, let’s look at the market of BTC, which benefited from the positive sentiment of the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, especially the series of politicians represented by Trump. Releasing more than expected friendly information, BTC has maintained a relatively strong performance last week (especially in the second half of the week).

Based on this background, as the conference comes to a close, the market also has certain expectations for a potential correction in BTC.

Bitfinex Alpha released a report yesterday stating that the implied volatility of the Bitcoin options market surged simultaneously during the Nashville conference, but the implied volatility has declined recently, which means that there may be a slight consolidation in the short term.

However, around 7:30 this morning, the Mt. Gox address once again made a small test transfer (0.02 BTC). Considering that Mt. Gox has performed substantial transfers every time after similar operations. The amount was transferred out, which also aggravated the panic in the market, causing the correction to further amplify - the low of today's correction appeared at around 8:15, shortly after this news appeared.

However, judging from the ETF outflow/outflow situation, institutions still maintain a relatively optimistic sentiment towards BTC for the time being. Trader T monitoring shows that the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday was US$123.1 million, which means that in the past half month (only counting trading days), there was only one day of net outflow in the ETF market, and there were more than ten other transactions. The daily average inflow remains positive.

In addition, the investment research institution EMC Labs also mentioned that the recovery in data in the computing power market shows the optimism of the miners. On July 20, the Bit network computing power reached a record high of 724 EH/s, and the 7-day average computing power was also close to the historical high. The recovery of computing power indicates that miners, an important community member, are firmly optimistic about the market outlook, and has also become an effective support for BTC to reach a record high in the market outlook.

ETH: Waiting for the turning point

Unlike the situation with BTC, the recent trend of ETH will be largely affected by the Ethereum spot ETF, which has just opened for trading.

Although the eight major ETFs, including BlackRock ETHA, Fidelity FETH, Bitwise ETHW, Grayscale Mini ETH, etc., have always maintained a positive net inflow, due to the sky-high outflow of Grayscale ETH E, the flow has ETH, whose performance is not as good as BTC, undertook hundreds of millions of dollars of net selling pressure in just a few days.

Farside Investors data shows that the total outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs yesterday was US$156.5 million, and a total of US$498.3 million has been outflowed in the past five trading days - of which Grayscale has outflowed US$1.723 billion, and a number of other ETFs have collectively flowed in. $1.225 billion.

不过稍微值得乐观的一点是，灰度 ETHE 在过去 5 天内已流出 19.7% ，如果假设最终的流出份额为 50% ，预计还需 17 天达成，但在此之前随着 ETHE 流出规模的下降，其他 ETF 的流出数据应可与其相抵消。

综合来看， ETHE 的流出速度要比 G BTC 当年的流出速度快上许多，如果 ETH 可复刻 BTC 当时在 ETF 启动后「先跌后涨」的走势，预计 ETH 拐点会比 BTC 当时出现的更早。

山寨币：牛市还回来吗？

综合来看，除了 meme 、 AI 等少数板块，以及接棒 ETF 预期的 SOL 等少数项目外，绝大部分山寨币在本轮市场周期中的表现都可以用「灾难」来形容。山寨币之所以表现如此糟糕，究其原因主要有三：

• 一是 ETF 的获批导致市场的流动性传导模式出现了变化，以往的增量资金入场路径一般都是「稳定币 —— BTC 、 ETH —— 山寨币」，但如今来自于传统市场的增量资金会更倾向于通过 ETF 形式直接投资 BTC ，这也导致资金无法继续传导，造成山寨币市场的流动性匮乏状况。
• 二是「 VC 代币」持续性的天量解锁带来了持续性的抛压，造成了「供大于求」的市场格局 —— 细看部分山寨币的流通变化情况，你会发现虽然部分代币的价格持续下跌，但流通市值却在持续创下新高。
• 三则是天价开盘的新项目们在不断吸血市场仅剩的流动性， io.net 、 ZKsync 、 LayerZero 、 Blast ……一大堆造势已久的热门项目接连上线，且 FDV 普遍在数十亿美元的级别，这使得山寨币市场的流动性匮乏状况进一步加剧。

不过即便是在这种情况下，既然有部分头部大佬对山寨币的后市行情表示乐观。

加密货币做市商 GSR 联席首席执行官兼联合创始人 Rich Rosenblum 昨日在 X 平台发文表示，山寨币将会卷土重来，而且会强势回归，这是他最有信心的一次。

考虑到 「 BTC 涨时山寨不动， BTC 下跌山寨血崩」 的惯例已有打破趋向， Rich （这名字叫的真好…）的预言究竟能否实现，让我们继续保持关注吧。

潜在变量：宏观大周

需要注意的是，本周多起宏观时间均可能会对后市行情造成潜在影响。

北京时间周三（7 月 31 日）上午 11: 00 ，日本央行将公布利率决议和前景展望报告；

周四（8 月 1 日）凌晨 2: 00 ，美联储将公布利率决议，半小时后鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会；

当晚 19: 00 ，英国央行将公布利率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告。

Greeks . live 宏观研究员 Adam 亦就此表示，尽管市场预期较为一致，但是一旦有超市场预期的消息出现都将会是重磅炸弹。

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