Cycle Capital: One-week on-chain data tracking (20240729)

Panic and Greed Index

The Panic and Greed Index is now 74, which is a greedy position and the market investment sentiment is high. During the decline in June, the panic and greed index fell significantly. In early July, it fell below 30, which was the lowest value in more than a year. After that, there was a significant rebound.

CME BTC contract positions

CME positions have been growing continuously since July 5th, and began to reduce positions on July 23rd. On July 28th, positions increased again after Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin Conference .

The corresponding logical change is that after July 5th, funds will be bullish on the market, and as July 23rd approaches the pressure level and the Bitcoin Conference, some funds will be sold to lighten their positions. After Trump's speech, BTC fell, but it rebounded quickly, indicating that the fall caused by funds selling facts was limited, so some funds were bullish about the market outlook and re-entered the market.

CME BTC Leveraged Funds Short Position

Leveraged Funds Short Position increased by 103, 515 BTC last week (2024/07/16–2024/07/23), usually this indicator also means when it is upward The spot side of arbitrage funds is also adding positions, and the indicator has dropped to an inflection point, indicating that there will be an upward trend after short positions are closed.

Bitfinex BTC Margin Long Position

Bitfinex long positions were closed at a low point on March 16 (corresponding to the market reaching a high level), and then began to accumulate long positions. So far, the positions are still at a high level, but not grow again.

Stablecoin Supply Oscillator (SSRO)

SSRO was already lower than the low in August-September last year when it bottomed out on July 9, indicating that the participation of funds on the market was declining rapidly. But it also forms an inflection point, a rebound from the lows. This relatively low position is a relatively good rebound condition for copycats.

Changes in the proportion of long-term and short-term BTC holders

The blue part is the change in the proportion of long-term BTC holders. According to the previous two bull markets in 2017 and 2021, there will be two decreases in the proportion of long-term BTC holders, and the second decrease will be greater than the first.

From December 2023 to April 2024, during the main rise of BTC, long-term BTC holders continued to sell. Since April, BTC has entered a wide range of fluctuations, and long-term holders have stopped selling and tend to continue to hold BTC.

Unrealized net gains and losses of long-term BTC holders

In both 2017 and 2021 cycles, the unrealized net gains and losses of long-term BTC holders have entered the blue zone, exceeding 0.75. Since this round of market conditions, this indicator has not yet entered the blue zone and is still running in the green zone. It is believed that the indicator should enter the blue area and run for a period of time to form the top of this round of market.

Unrealized net profit and loss of short-term BTC holders

In the bull market, when the unrealized net profit and loss of short-term BTC holders is close to 0 or below 0, a relative phased bottom will be formed. It was below 0 twice in 2023 and twice in 2024. From the end of June to early July 2024, the unrealized net profit and loss of short-term currency holders was below 0, and returned to above 0 on July 15. Referring to the trend in September 2023, a main rise may follow.

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