Toncoin (TON) Has Been Doing Well, but Recent Signs Suggest Holders Might Need to Be Careful

Toncoin (TON) has been doing well, with its value going up by more than 300% in the last three months. However, some recent signs in the market suggest

As the crypto market continues to experience volatility, some assets have seen significant price appreciation. Among them is Toncoin (TON), which has seen its value increase by more than 300% in the last three months. However, recent on-chain signals might be indicating a need for TON holders to proceed with caution. Let's delve into these signals and assess whether it's time to sell your TON or consider holding on.

Diving into the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score

When evaluating a crypto asset's profitability, the MVRV ratio plays a crucial role. This metric compares an asset's market capitalization at a specific time to its Realized Cap, providing insights into traders' overall unrealized profit or loss.

Data from Santiment reveals that TON is among the four major cryptocurrencies with the highest MVRV Z-Scores in the last three and a half months. Notably, TON's MVRV Z-Score stands at 5.09, followed by Bitcoin (2.2), Ethereum (0.95), and Dogecoin (0.5). A high MVRV Z-Score, typically above 2, can indicate that an asset is considered overpriced, leading to increased selling pressure from traders aiming to realize their profits.

Large Cap Cryptocurrencies With Above 0 MVRV Z-Score, Source: Santiment

Analyzing TON's Price Stability

Despite the sell signals emerging from on-chain metrics, TON's market cap currently sits at $17.09 billion, surging from $5 billion in just over three months. Even TON developers continue to forge ahead with their endeavors.

In an exciting development, the TON Core team and Tonkeeper have joined forces to create the W5 smart wallet. This innovative wallet allows users to transact on the network without paying any fees, making the overall experience much smoother and enjoyable.

Moreover, TON's price experienced a slight decrease of 7.9% last week. However, in the last 24 hours, its price بالا رفت by 3.38%, and it's now trading at $6.79, according to data from CMC. This increase is part of a broader market recovery, which was likely influenced by Bitcoin's price動き after the commencement of the Bitcoin Conference 2024 in Nashville, TN.

Toncoin (TON) Price Chart, Source: CoinMarketCap

Examining the price levels, TON encountered its highest price on June 14 at $8.28 before experiencing a decline. Important support levels for TON/USD include immediate support at $6.20, a 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $5.53, with secondary support at $4.78. In terms of moving averages, TON is currently below the 50-day EMA but above the 20-day EMA. This indicates a mixed outlook, with potential resistance around $7.12 (50-day EMA) and $7.65. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the midpoint at 39.99 and is sloping down, suggesting a potential ادامه in TON's price decrease and indicating oversold conditions. Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) recently crossed below zero, indicating money is leaving, and there’s more sell pressure.

As of July 27, TON's price is predicted to be $6.6595, with a maximum of $7.1257 and a minimum of $6.1933. This price prediction aligns with the current bearish signals.

While TON's recent gains have been substantial, the high MVRV Z-Score serves as a warning signal, indicating a potential sell-off due to traders aiming to realize their profits from the asset's price appreciation. This sell-off could lead to further price decreases for TON.

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