Bankless: Up or down? Predict the trend of 10 tokens in the next 3 months

Reference source Bankless

Affected by multiple changes in the US election and the passage of the Ethereum spot ETF this week, the BTC and ETH prices have rebounded. So what will be the performance of Shanzhai in the next three months? The Bankless analysis team recently made predictions about the rise and fall of 10 altcoins in the next three months. This article will sort out the predictions and reasons of the Bankless analyst team, and summarize previous predictions for readers' own reference.

Previously predicted winning rate: 43.7%

In early July, when the market generally fell, Bankless predicted the trend of 16 tokens in the next three months. For details, please see "Will it rise or fall in the next three months?" Bankless predicts the trend of 16 tokens. So far, its predicted winning rate is about 43.7%, and 7 of the 16 predicted coins are in line with the expected trend.

In the L2 sector, the predictions are all correct, and the performance of the leading L2 tokens is not as good as ETH. ETH has risen by about 25% from the beginning of July to the present, while ARB (down 5%), BLAST (down 23%), OP (down 17%), and STRK (up or down not obvious) have all experienced declines.

However, the L1 sector and SLD sector predictions have somewhat failed. As of now, SOL and ETHFI have risen by 23% and 9% respectively, while AVAX, which is predicted to rise, has fallen by 8%.

DeFi sector

Maker (MKR)

• View: Neutral

• Reason: Huge growth potential, but greatly affected by cycles

Forecast time period: July 22, 2024 to 2024 October 22nd

Coin price at the time of prediction: $2

Coin price performance since prediction: no significant change

The Bankless analysis team is neutral on MKR’s subsequent performance. If the crypto bull market continues, investors may recognize Maker’s Huge growth potential, but also the risk of losing money during a market downturn, especially if Ethena goes bankrupt.

In 2023, Maker increased the supply of DAI by minting stablecoins directly in money markets with high liquidity needs, initially through its Spark lending subDAO and now also through third-party Morpho applications. The rise of high-yield Ethena synthetic USD collateral in 2024 allows Maker to lend DAI at a premium, and the stability of the collateral allows borrowers to take on debt at extremely high loan ratios.

Maker currently generates annualized fee revenue of $281 million, making it one of the most valuable cryptocurrencies. If the encryption market continues to grow in the future, its current fully diluted price-to-sales ratio of 9.6 times is not high.

Instadapp (INST)

• View: Bullish

• Rationale: The launch of new features gives it an edge over the DeFi competition

Forecast Time Period: July 16, 2024 to October 2024 On the 16th

Predicted currency price: $2.2

Predicted currency price performance so far: down 1.36%

The Bankless analysis team believes that INST may outperform the market because crypto investors are looking for alternatives to tokens with no real value. At the same time, Fluid's promotion can increase Instadapp's adoption and revenue.

From June to July, DeFi tokens that had previously underperformed began to receive the attention of cryptocurrency traders because they had real revenue and real fundamentals, and Instadapp was one of them. Instadapp is a platform that can aggregate multiple DeFi protocols into a unified smart contract layer. The Instadapp team launched Fluid this year, a new combination of money markets and DEX, built on the unified Instadapp liquidity layer, allowing users to earn from collateral and gain greater flexibility in borrowing. + March 15th

Predicted currency price: $1.88

Predicted currency price performance to date: no significant change

• From 2017 to 2019, Hiro Systems (formerly known as Blockstack) raised $70 million through token sales; it The first SEC-qualified public token sale was conducted in 2019 via a Reg A+ offering, and tokens were sold during this period to accredited investors and international investors under the Reg D and S exemptions, respectively.

After Stack transitioned to a decentralized proof-of-transfer consensus mechanism, Hiro Systems submitted an application to the SEC in January 2021, stating that it would no longer provide "basic management services for the Stacks blockchain" in order to free STX It is suspected of being a security.

• But the SEC disagreed with Hiro’s statement and launched an investigation into Stacks later that year. However, the SEC announced on Friday that it does not plan to take enforcement action against Hiro Systems.

  The Bankless analysis team remains neutral on Stacks. Although the SEC has confirmed that Hiro has committed no illegal acts in connection with its token sale, the announcement does not provide any clarity on whether STX is a security, so there are significant unresolved risks. But from a fundamental perspective, the Stacks Nakamoto upgrade will decouple transaction wait times from Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time to provide more immediate confirmations, a benefit that could have a positive impact on the token price.

  Maple Finance (MPL)

  • View: Bearish

  • Reason: Limited product competitiveness, token inflation increases selling pressure

  Forecast time period: July 10, 2024 to October 2024 On the 10th of the month

  Predicted currency price: $11.64

  Predicted currency price performance so far: up 65.64%

  Bankless analysis team is not optimistic about MPL’s subsequent performance because its cash management products have limited adoption compared to other products and are unsecured Loans are likely to default as they have been many times in the past, crypto-backed loans to large numbers of borrowers are likely to be liquidated in a market downturn, points programs have limited incentives, and increased future token inflation will also create selling pressure.

  While Maple’s TVL has almost tripled since March, the token price is down 60% from that month’s high. The rise was primarily driven by over-collateralized USDC lending in BTC and SOL to a handful of whitelisted traders.

  On June 8, at the ETHCC conference, Maple announced a 50% increase in points deposits for its “retail-focused” product Syrup, which simply re-deposits assets into existing Maple pools – primarily its High-yield secured loan pool with the highest return rates. Point rewards come from the 23% token inflation approved in proposal MIP-009 and are expected to continue. Possibly this year when MPL is converted to tokens, recipients will be able to convert their points into an unknown amount of SYRUP.

  Ondo Finance (ONDO)

  • View: Bearish

  • Rationale: Valuation is too high for the market to satisfy

  Forecast Time Period: July 8, 2024 to October 8, 2024

  Coin price at time of prediction: $0.92

  Coin price performance so far predicted: up 13.52%

  The Bankless analysis team predicts that market growth in the next few months will be difficult to meet ONDO’s huge valuation.

  Ondo’s token price and TVL tripled from March to early June, but the month before the analysis, ONDO’s market capitalization shrank by a third as capital inflows almost stopped.

  Ondo’s $550 million deposit yield is about 5%, and the protocol’s annualized revenue is just under $30 million, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of 303 times, which means investors have already bet on ONDO’s future growth .

  While the addressable market for on-chain money market instruments is hypothetically in the trillions, the continued lack of growth will make it difficult to justify ONDO’s massive valuation. If blockchain is truly adopted by the mainstream, Ondo is simply a tokenization of other asset managers' products and will be quickly replaced by the actual issuing entity (i.e. BlackRock).

  Other sectors

  BNB Chain (BNB)

  • View: Bearish

  • Reasons: The ecosystem is weak, and some business in the United States is not enough to support the upward trend

  Forecast time period: July 19, 2024 to October 19, 2024

  Predicted currency price: $593.54

  Predicted currency price performance to date: down 1%

  The Bankless analysis team believes that BNB has no reason to be affected by the news that Binance US has obtained court authorization to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds has risen, and the BNB Chain on-chain indicators have been declining since June, lacking the motivation to continue the development of its ecosystem.

  On July 19, the court responsible for the SEC v. Binance case approved the BAM management entity that manages Binance US to invest corporate assets and customer legal funds hosted on BitGo in 1-month U.S. Treasury bonds, but only if there is no third party (including other Binance entities) participate in the investment, and Binance US maintains sufficient reserves to honor fiat withdrawals.

  While the potential to earn on an exchange account may attract users to Binance US, who may then be tempted to buy BNB, it’s unclear whether this feature will be attractive to crypto traders considering Coinbase already offers a USDC earning plan By.

  Mantle (MNT)

  • View: Neutral

  • Reason: Although the competitive advantage is obvious, the overall pressure on the L2 track is huge

  Forecast time period: July 18, 2024 to October 2024 On the 18th

  Predicted currency price: $0.85

  Predicted currency price performance so far: up 2.85%

  The Bankless analysis team remains neutral on the subsequent performance of MNT. Although Mantle has the ability to compete with other L2s, the industry generally faces supply problems Adding to the valuation headwinds Mantle will need to dilute its tokens in order to implement the incentive program.

  In 2024, MNT has been the best-performing L2 token, outperforming major competitors such as MATIC, ARB, and OP by over 100%, and becoming one of the few cryptocurrencies to perform essentially on par with ETH year-to-date at the time of analysis one.

  與其他L2 不同，Mantle Network 的獨特之處在於它使用MNT 作為gas 支付（這提高了代幣效用）、相對高於競爭對手的流動性（這減輕了未來潛在的拋售壓力）和巨額的25億美元流動資金（為未來的用戶誘因提供資金）。

  儘管 MNT 具有優勢，但 L2普遍的都面臨著來自持續代幣解鎖和新代幣創建的巨大壓力。此外，自6 月以來Mantle 生態系統活動減少，隨著用戶退出生態系統，代幣可能會出現反身性，而Mantle 國庫90% 是MNT，這意味著當將代幣作為激勵空投發放時時，會產生拋售壓力。

  Livepeer（LPT）

  • 觀點：看跌

  • 理由：產品與市場契合度有限，代幣被高估

  17 日
  預測時幣價： 16.98 美元
  預測至今幣價表現：下跌9.19% 
  Bankless 分析團隊認為 Livepeer 與去中心化視頻流媒體的市場契合度有限，並且由於持續缺乏增長，LPT 被高估，未來幾個月表現不容客觀。
  7 月17 日，加密貨幣領域知名資產管理公司Grayscale 宣布推出其去中心化AI 基金，旨在為投資者提供基於區塊鏈的AI 協議，Grayscale 認為這些協議「可以幫助緩解伴隨AI 技術普及而出現的基本風險」。 Livepeer 是該基金包含的 5 種資產之一，將獲得 8.6% 的分配。
  Livepeer 成立於 2017 年，是一個去中心化的視訊基礎設施網絡，提供直播和點播串流服務。儘管 Livepeer 已經成立多年，但其採用率有限，每天的收入不超過數百美元。
  ETH Name Service（ENS）
  • 觀點：看跌

  • 理由：代幣炒作過高，實際應用未增長

  預測時段： 2024 年至7 月11 日
  預測時幣價： 26.07 美元
  預測至今幣價表現：下跌3.72% 
  Bankless 分析團隊認為 ENS 的估值比以往任何時候都要高，而且其缺乏增長將很快推動價格與基本面保持一致。
  在進行分析時，ENS 較 5 月份的底部上漲了 90% ，原因可能是 ETH 現貨 ETF 可能會獲得 SEC 批准。儘管代幣價格飆升，但在此期間實際 ENS 使用量急劇下降；7 月 1 日的每週費用跌至僅 19.2 萬美元，為 2021 年 7 月以來的最低水平。
  將ENS 作為以太坊上高 beta 收益的猜測已將其代幣價格推高至費用的243 倍，創下有史以來的最高水平，但不幸的是，維持價格上漲所需的增長未能實現。如果 ENS 的定價與去年 8 月的倍數相同，則代幣的交易價格應該為 3.46 美元，比歷史低點低 50% ，比分析低 85% 。
  Celestia（TIA）
  • 觀點：看跌

  觀點：看跌

  理由：收入低且通膨嚴重

  預測時段：2024 年幣價格： 7.17 美元

  預測至今幣價表現：未明顯變化

  儘管價格已經經歷了大幅回撤，但Bankless 分析團隊仍預計市場將不願意消化在10 月31 日進行大幅代幣通脹，這將使TIA 的流動供應量增加約一倍。

  TIA 引入了「stake-to-earn」的敘事，在空投後巧遇相對泡沫化的加密市場行情，並在短短四個月內以10 倍的收益讓持有者大吃一驚，然後在2024 年2 月初達到頂峰。

  🎜儘管承諾為保護其他加密經濟網絡數據的TIA 質押者提供許多的空投財富，但實際上只有少數項目將 TIA 質押者作為空投對象，收到的代幣僅略微增加了質押TIA 的收益率，而質押收益主要來自於通貨膨脹的TIA 代幣。 🎜🎜對於某些L2 來說，具有半降級安全保障的廉價數據可用性可能是一個理想的功能，然而，然而，Celestia 似乎更像是慈善而不是商業組織，因為它可能產生的收入極其有限，而且需要透過通貨膨脹來補貼。 🎜

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