After the Ethereum spot ETF is launched, all parties’ opinions on the short- and medium-term currency price trend

On July 22, the U.S. SEC officially approved the S-1 applications of multiple ETF issuers, and the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading. Trading started at 9:30 U.S. Eastern Time on July 23.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the spot ETH ETF group’s trading volume reached $112 million in the first 15 minutes after the start of trading. This is a huge trading volume compared to the issuance of ordinary ETFs, but is only equivalent to the BTC ETF The group (excluding GBTC) accounted for half of first-day trading volume, but nonetheless exceeded expectations. In the first 15 minutes, Grayscale ETHE had a trading volume of $39.7 million, Bitwise ETHW had a trading volume of $25.5 million, BlackRock ETHA had a trading volume of $22.5 million, Fidelity FETH had a trading volume of $15.2 million, and others.

Large market maker Wintermute expects Ethereum ETFs to receive up to $4 billion in inflows from investors over the next year. That's below the $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion most analysts expected, which is already about 62% less than the $17 billion Bitcoin ETFs have raised so far since they began trading in the United States six months ago. Wintermute does expect the price of Ethereum to rise by 24% over the next 12 months, driven by these inflows.

Daniel Yan, founder of Kryptanium Capital and co-founder of Matrixport, tweeted about the ETH ETF: I still hold on to the contrarian view that ETH/BTC will actually move lower rather than higher in the coming weeks. Reasons include: people will buy when the rumor is out and sell when the truth is revealed; net traffic may be negative. It expects ETH/BTC to fall below 0.05 and stabilize between 0.0475 and 0.05.

US regulators have rejected an issuer’s request to allow an Ethereum ETF to pledge its holdings of the cryptocurrency. "This loss reduces the competitiveness of the ETH ETF compared to direct holdings, as investors can still benefit from staking," Wintermute said in its report.

Kaiko Index Director Will Cai said in a report Said: At the end of last year, the United States launched a futures-based ETH ETF, but the demand was not ideal. All eyes are on the launch of spot ETFs, with high hopes for rapid accumulation of assets. Regardless of the long-term trend, the price of Ethereum is likely to be “sensitive” to the amount of inflows in the first few days of trading. Implied volatility shows a lack of confidence in the launch of the ETH ETF.

Citibank reported that net inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs may be equivalent to 30%-35% of Bitcoin ETFs, which means the potential net inflows into Ethereum ETFs within six months will reach $4.7 billion to $5.4 billion . But due to the lack of staking and Bitcoin’s first-mover advantage, capital flows may be insufficient.

Grayscale says that nearly a quarter (25%) of potential (US) voters would be more interested in investing in Ethereum if an Ethereum (spot) ETF were approved.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF could attract $15 billion worth of net inflows in its first 18 months. He expects investors to allocate roughly in line with the market caps of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ($1.2 trillion and $405 billion), providing about 75% weighting to spot Bitcoin ETFs and about 25% to Ethereum ETFs. Weights. There are currently more than $50 billion in assets under management through spot Bitcoin ETFs, and Hougan expects that number to reach at least $100 billion by the end of 2025.

Crypto analysis firm K33 Research estimates that the upcoming spot ETH ETF in the United States will have an estimated inflow of $3 billion to $4.8 billion in the first five months, which will be equivalent to 800,000 to 1.26 million based on current prices ETH is accumulated in ETFs, accounting for approximately 0.7%-1.05% of the total token supply. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde said this supply-absorbing shock should cause ETH prices to rise. Additionally, K33 believes that the omission of staking will not negatively impact inflows into the ETF. Previously, JPMorgan predicted $3 billion in inflows to the ETH ETF this year and believed that the omission of pledges would affect inflows.

The total Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF market is expected to grow to $450 billion, according to a Bernstein report, suggesting that more than $100 billion will flow into crypto ETFs over the next two years. The broker previously predicted a Bitcoin cycle high of $150,000 in 2025, with a year-end price target of $90,000. Furthermore, the report claims that Ethereum is the first PoS token to be approved as a spot ETF, which has a positive impact on other blockchain tokens and Solana (SOL) may benefit.

Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra estimate that the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF will send the price of Ethereum surging 75% to $6,600. They noted that the SEC's approval of a similar Bitcoin product in January spurred a 75% rise in Bitcoin prices in the following weeks, and expected similar changes in ETH's price action. However, Kaiko analyst Adam McCarthy believes that there is not much demand for the Hong Kong ETH ETF, and it has experienced several days of net outflows. The lack of staking is also an important factor and may further impact demand.

Penganalisis Standard Chartered Bank Geoffrey Kendrick berkata bahawa ETF mata wang kripto seperti SOL dan XRP mungkin diluluskan pada 2025. Ia percaya bahawa kelulusan ETH ETF bermakna ETH dan mata wang kripto yang serupa tidak akan diklasifikasikan sebagai sekuriti. Selain itu, ETH ETF dijangka boleh membawa masuk antara $15 bilion dan $45 bilion dalam aliran masuk dalam 12 bulan pertama. Kendrick juga meramalkan bahawa ETF akan mendorong ETH ke paras $8,000 menjelang akhir tahun 2024.

Penyelidik Noelle Acheson, bekas ketua cerapan pasaran di Genesis Global Trading, berkata pelbagai penunjuk mencadangkan minat institusi dalam Ethereum ETF jauh lebih rendah daripada minat terhadap Bitcoin. Penganalisis Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Eric Balchunas menjangkakan Ethereum ETF menyumbang "10-15% daripada aset Bitcoin ETF." ETF niaga hadapan ETH pada masa ini hanya mempunyai 4% daripada ETF niaga hadapan BTC. Bagi spot Ethereum ETF itu sendiri, data yang tersedia menunjukkan minat institusi mungkin juga kurang.

Terdahulu dalam podcast Wu Said, peguam Winter Soldier percaya bahawa apabila ETF Bitcoin lulus, saya fikir Ethereum ETF juga akan lulus lambat laun. Kelulusan ETF spot memerlukan dua syarat penting: pasaran dagangan niaga hadapan yang matang dan kestabilan antara harga spot dan niaga hadapan. Inilah sebabnya mengapa ETF spot Ethereum dapat lulus dengan lancar selepas ETF Bitcoin lulus. Jika Bitcoin boleh mencapai $100,000 pada masa hadapan, maka harga Ethereum mencapai $6,000-8,000 juga mungkin. Ramalan ini agak konservatif, dan keadaan sebenar juga bergantung kepada arah aliran makroekonomi. ETF spot Solana kurang berkemungkinan lulus kerana kekurangan ETF niaga hadapan dan kekurangan desentralisasi.

Penganalisis ETF Bloomberg James Seyffart berkata dalam temu bual bahawa permintaan untuk spot Ethereum ETF boleh mencapai 20% hingga 25% daripada permintaan untuk spot Bitcoin ETF. JamesSeyffart menegaskan bahawa ramalan ini adalah berdasarkan saiz pasaran Ethereum iaitu kira-kira 30% daripada Bitcoin. Had Ethereum ETF termasuk ketidakupayaan untuk mempertaruhkan dan ketidakupayaan untuk memanfaatkan utiliti dalam rantaian. Ketua Pegawai Pelaburan Bitwise Matt Hougan meramalkan "permintaan besar" untuk spot Ethereum ETF, dengan permintaan datang daripada kepelbagaian dan minat untuk melabur dalam teknologi pertumbuhan tinggi.

Cobo dan F2pool mencipta bersama Shenyu berkata bahawa pada peringkat awal penyenaraian ETH ETF, aliran masuk modal utama mungkin datang daripada pelabur runcit, menyumbang 80-90% daripada jumlah dana, dengan kurang penyertaan daripada pengguna institusi; pelabur boleh memasuki pasaran secara beransur-ansur selepas Disember.

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