Ethereum spot ETF is opening soon! Wintermute, Kaiko are bearish: demand inflow is far lower than expected

This site (120bTC.coM): As the Ethereum spot ETF is about to be launched, market maker Wintermute and research institution Kaiko have predicted this, agreeing that the initial demand for the ETFs may be lower than expected, and the funds within one year Inflows will even be nowhere near the half-year inflows into the Bitcoin spot ETF.

Kaiko: Traders’ confidence in Ethereum ETFs is weakening

Will Cai, head of Kaiko’s index department, pointed out in a research report yesterday (22) that demand for the Ethereum futures ETF launched in the United States at the end of last year was sluggish, as most transactions Investors are focusing on the launch of spot ETFs, hoping to quickly accumulate assets.

ETH price action ahead of spot ETF approval

Although full demand may not fully emerge for several months, ETH price may be quite "sensitive" to inflows in the first few days of trading, And show high volatility.

Meanwhile, ETH’s implied volatility surged over the weekend, with volatility rising from 59% to 67% for the most recent expiring contracts (July 26):

ETH Implied Volatility

This shows that traders are not confident enough in the Ethereum spot ETF listing, as they are willing to pay more additional funds to hedge their bets.

Wintermute: ETH prices have risen by at most 24% in a year

Like Kaiko, who is also not optimistic about the demand performance of Ethereum spot ETFs, cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute also expressed similar views in Monday's market report.

The company expects that the Ethereum spot ETF will generate approximately $3.2 billion to $4 billion in capital inflows in the first year after opening for trading: We believe that demand for the Ethereum spot ETF may be much lower than expected, and this figure is only That’s 38% of the Bitcoin spot ETF’s inflows in six months.

And added, "The total inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF by the end of this year will reach approximately US$32 billion in assets; in other words, the inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the first year will only be 10% to 12% of Bitcoin's %. 》

In addition, Wintermute also predicted the price of ETH, saying that it will not rise more than 24% in the next 12 months. At the same time, it summed up the reason: US regulators rejected the issuer’s Ethereum spot ETF. The requirement to stake and generate returns makes buying the ETF less competitive than holding ETH directly.

Ethereum spot ETF starts trading tonight

Previously, a total of 7 Ethereum spot ETFs received final approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday night, with issuers including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Tambor Dayton, VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares and Invesco.

Among them, the management fees of most issuers fall within the range of 0.15% to 0.25%.

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