The Crypto Industry Waits With Bated Breath for a Second Donald Trump Presidency

The crypto industry is holding its breath for a second Donald Trump presidency since the former president has vowed to end President Joe Biden's ‘crusade against crypto.’

The crypto industry is eagerly awaiting the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, with former President Donald Trump’s campaign promising favorable policies for the digital asset sector.

According to a recent poll by CBS News, Trump leads the Republican field with 52% of voters likely to support him in the upcoming elections, while President Joe Biden trails behind with 31% support among Democratic voters.

However, the crypto industry’s enthusiasm for a potential Trump presidency may not extend to overseas crypto firms, which could face increased competition from their U.S. counterparts.

According to a Bloomberg report on Sunday, foreign crypto exchanges like Binance, OKX and Deribit may experience a decline in their market shares as U.S. exchanges thrive under Trump's tenure.

With Trump promising crypto-friendly regulation, U.S. exchanges could be permitted to offer trading services with higher leverage or launch crypto futures and options contracts with a wider range of expiration dates, giving them a significant advantage over their overseas competitors.

Another industry that could face challenges under a potential Trump presidency is Bitcoin mining. Most U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners currently rely on mining rigs from Bitmain, the largest manufacturer of Bitcoin mining machines.

However, with U.S. rivals like Block and Auradine now selling new chips and machines to Bitcoin mining companies, Bitmain could encounter difficulties in maintaining its market dominance.

According to market participants and observers, nearly every U.S. crypto firm is poised to benefit from a second Trump presidency.

Jefferies analysts stated earlier this week that Trump’s “overt support” for Bitcoin and crypto could drive up prices for crypto stocks, ultimately leading to a surge in crypto mining activity.

“Almost everyone in the US would be a winner if they are willing to operate by the new rules when implemented,” said Christian Catalini, founder of MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab, in an interview with Bloomberg.

“The losers would be those who are unwilling or unable to operate within the new regulatory framework, or those who are betting on a Biden victory and a continuation of the status quo.”

Among the potential winners are Bitcoin miners, as well as crypto firms that faced obstacles in their attempts to go public in the U.S.

Trump held a meeting with Bitcoin miners in June, following which he posted on his Truth Social account that Bitcoin miners serve as “our last line of defense against a CBDC.” He further stated that his ambition is to ensure that all remaining Bitcoins are “MADE IN THE USA!!!”

In contrast, crypto firms have encountered limited success in pursuing Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) during Biden’s presidency and Gary Gensler’s leadership of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

For example, USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin issuer Circle scrapped its plans to go public over a year ago, but it filed for an IPO in January 2024.

Other firms, such as Kraken, the second largest U.S. crypto exchange, and crypto miner-turned artificial intelligence computing provider, Northern Data, are still preparing for their IPOs.

Under a Trump presidency, these firms may finally receive the green light for listing, especially since the former president is expected to replace Gensler with someone more crypto-friendly.

It is also worth noting that Kraken founder Jesse Powell has donated $1 million to Trump’s campaign. However, Powell is just one of many in the crypto industry who are supporting Trump's bid for re-election.

Crypto exchanges, which have increasingly faced banking challenges amid tighter regulations, may also benefit from a Trump presidency, as his policies are likely to ease regulations on the crypto sector.

As a result, exchanges could see their pool of banking options expanding, offering them greater flexibility in operating their businesses.

Furthermore, Trump has vowed never to permit the issuance of a digital dollar — a measure that aligns with the crypto industry’s concerns, which view CBDCs as a potential avenue for the government to enhance financial surveillance.

In February, Trump called CBDCs a “very dangerous thing.”

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