Bitcoin Miners and Crypto Firms May Be the Biggest Winners in a Second Trump Presidency

Foreign companies at risk of losing market share may end up being the biggest losers.

As former President Donald Trump's embrace of cryptocurrency intensifies and the likelihood of his election grows, a second Trump presidency may significantly impact the digital-asset industry. Here's a breakdown of the potential winners and losers:

Bitcoin Miners: A Trump victory could bolster the share prices of Bitcoin mining companies. Following Biden's poor debate performance and a failed assassination attempt on Trump, Bitcoin has risen nearly 10%. Trump met with Bitcoin miners in June and expressed support for the industry on Truth Social. Shares of Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms have surged around 30% since June.

IPO Candidates: Despite the 2022 crypto market crash, several companies are planning initial public offerings. Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, filed for an IPO in January. Crypto miner-turned AI computing provider Northern Data is considering a US listing at a valuation of up to $16 billion. Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms are also reportedly planning IPOs. The dealings of digital assets have hindered these companies' efforts to gain approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Several tokens are listed by the agency as unregistered securities, and crypto figures have criticized SEC Chair Gary Gensler for crackdowns and lawsuits against crypto firms. A crypto-friendly SEC chair is more likely to be appointed by Trump.

Digital Exchanges: A second Trump presidency may lead to the banking system becoming more accepting of crypto firms. Digital-asset trading platforms have faced a shrinking pool of banks for fiat currency-crypto asset conversions. Several crypto-friendly banks, such as Silvergate and Signature, have gone bankrupt, further limiting crypto firms' access to banking services.

Offshore Rivals: A handful of companies may experience adverse effects from a Trump win. Offshore crypto firms, particularly trading platforms like Binance, OKX, and Deribit, have gained market share as stringent regulation prevents US rivals from offering popular services. With crypto-friendly regulators and a clear legal framework, US-based companies could introduce trading services with higher leverage, crypto options, and futures contracts with more expiration dates.

Another potential loser is Bitmain, a Chinese multi-billion dollar conglomerate. The company dominates the Bitcoin mining machines market, with most US-listed Bitcoin miners utilizing its rigs. Trump's China trade rhetoric and ambition to produce all remaining Bitcoin in the US may pose challenges for Bitmain. Block and Auradine, both US competitors, are selling large amounts of new chips or machines to mining companies.

Central Bank Digital Currencies: Trump's disdain for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is well-known. Many crypto participants view a CBDC as a government tool for enhanced financial surveillance. Trump has vowed to never allow the digitization of the dollar.

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