A quick look at 10 key signals and techniques for escaping from the top

Compiled by Shenzhen TechFlow

1. Introduction:

As cryptocurrencies gradually enter the mainstream market, the opportunities for "easy profits" are decreasing.

Unfortunately, not everyone can successfully seize the opportunity.

Here are 10 signals and tips to help you exit at the peak of the market cycle.

2. Balloons > Bubbles:

The word "bubble" is often misused. Instead, think of the market as a balloon.

While bubbles imply vulnerability, balloons can overinflate, deflate and restabilize.

The key is to gradually exit the balloon as it approaches its maximum volume.

3. Master the dynamics of the balloon:

The metaphor of the balloon helps explain why market tops are difficult to identify.

No one knows the limits of balloons.

It’s not as simple as waiting for the Twitter frenzy or your neighbor to buy BTC.

4. New Top Signals Needed:

Cryptocurrencies have a lot of precursors that blur the line between adoption and old top signals.

As the industry develops, signals are also changing.

In the last cycle, tracking crypto trading apps through the Apple Store rankings was very popular.

However, with the rise of BTC ETFs, this approach may no longer work.

5. The stakes are higher than ever:

2017 was the tulip bubble. 2021 has given us a glimpse of the dream. 202X could be real.

Will it end with a bang or a low note?

While the outcome is uncertain, this cycle is very different.

6. Signal 1 - Too much leverage:

Excessive leverage often leads to forced liquidations and crashes.

New, unforeseen risk factors and Ponzi schemes may trigger knock-on effects.

Let’s dive into each one:

(i) Rapid de-risking (and black swan events):

Rapid de-risking occurs when new, unforeseen risks are quickly priced into prices.

This will trigger massive portfolio de-risking, catching over-leveraged investors off guard.

Example: LUNA Crash in 2022.

来源：CoinGape

(ii) Ponzi scheme:

The pursuit of short-term gains while ignoring fundamentals can create instability.

Too much reliance on price momentum requires a constant influx of “dumb money”.

Studying tulip bubbles can provide additional insights.

7. Signal 2 - Corporate Financial Assets:

The fact that many companies use BTC as a reserve asset may be a signal.

While bullish, this may mean we are further along the adoption curve than many realize.

Even Trump is talking about it now.

来源：Forbes

8. Signal 3 - Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs):

Taking it a step further, SWFs may FOMO into BTC due to missed opportunities, marking the final exit from liquidity.

BlackRock insiders reveal interest from sovereign wealth funds.

Example: Norway ($1.4 trillion fund) or Saudi Arabia ($1 trillion fund).

9. Signal 4 - Gold Flip:

The “flip” narrative (ETH > BTC) is very strong in the 2021 cycle.

Now, the BTC vs. Gold flip may define this cycle.

With BTC hailed as digital gold, private and public capitulation could mark the final phase of the bull run.

10. Signal 5 - Liquidity Drainage:

A liquidity crunch is a potential market top signal.

Historically, cryptocurrencies have had a strong correlation with the global money supply.

Concerns arise in the market when a liquidity surge and a squeeze are imminent.

Liquidity typically leads cryptocurrency prices by at least 6 months.

来源：RaoulPal

(i) Running out of oil:

Without central bank intervention, the market frenzy may continue until funds run out.

Asset prices accelerated when oil ran out, but liquidity had already dried up.

11. Psychological Top Signals:

Emotions are important drivers of human behavior, especially in the cryptocurrency market.

Let’s dive into two common psychological signals of market tops

12. Signal 6 - Fear and Greed Index:

Prolonged periods of extreme greed can be a sign of upcoming problems.

They are often accompanied by the rise of excessive leverage and Ponzi schemes.

A common response is to gradually sell during periods of extreme greed.

来源：Alternative.me

13. Rely on “Ordinary People”:

Many people decide when to exit based on when their “stupidest” friends entered the market.

然而，这可能会产生误导。

对于我们的最后一个信号，让我们来点乐趣，扩展一下这个常见策略：

14.信号 7 - 左曲线：

在狂热情绪中，你的普通朋友可能会比你表现更好。为什么？

因为“左曲线”在狂热期间的回报远高于其他。

普通人可以通过购买你基本面良好的币种，而你却因恐惧错过机会买入他们的币种，从而再次超越你。

15.心理准备：

你可能无法准确把握顶部，但通过掌握情绪和训练市场直觉，你可以提高成功的几率。

以下是如何最好地给自己做好准备：

16.采用与泡沫的迹象：

采用和泡沫可能看起来相似。

如果这个周期真的不同，过去的模式可能根本无用。

依靠你的直觉和长期理论，保持开放的心态以应对范式转变。

17.情绪调节：

提前考虑潜在的损失，假设你可能对你的理论判断错误。

例如，如果市场已经见顶，你会怎样？

这种积极的预防方法可以最大限度地减少未来的痛苦和财务陷阱。

18.投机胜过基本面：

在高风险市场中，投机胜过基本面。

相反，在低风险市场中，基本面占据主导地位。

然而，随着行业的成熟，基本面变得越来越重要。

来源：The DeFi Edge

19.我们都是散户：

虽然新用户可能会在后期加入，但接受 99% 的 CT 用户是“散户”这一事实非常重要。

许多人通过购买垃圾币并卖给“愚蠢的散户资金”最终亏损。

在牛市的最后阶段，这只是一个获利的竞赛。

20.留下一些收益：

通过留下一些利润给他人来对抗你的贪婪。

例如，目标是在周期的上三分之一完全退出（而不是在确切的峰值）。

尊重对手，以避免被市场不尊重。

21.线程总结：

监控机构贪婪（企业+主权财富基金）

警惕新的/潜在的黑天鹅事件

警惕过度杠杆/庞氏骗局

研究流动性（山寨币紧随其后）

为他人留下一些利润

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