Worldcoin is struggling on the first anniversary of the token’s launch

What was once Worldcoin seems to have become a joke now.

A year ago, this project that was born with a golden key was still highly sought after. It won hundreds of millions of dollars in financing under the aura of OpenAI founder Sam Altman's re-entrepreneurship. Although the identity information device Orb is full of controversies, The vision of UBI has always been inspiring. In less than a year, suspected fraud, bad reputation and business bottlenecks have repeatedly appeared in discussions about the project.

Is it the rules of sovereignty or the flaws in human operation that caused the collapse of the project? The hard-core vision of Worldcoin is as hazy and elusive as a castle in the air.

A brief review of Worldcoin. When originally built, the project was conceived as a global distribution system that would enable a universal basic income by collecting identity information to confirm an individual’s existence. From the main body, Worldcoin consists of Worldcoin Foundation and Tools for Humanity, where the former focuses on community governance and the latter is the main body of actual technology development. The Worldcoin technology implementation framework consists of three parts, global identity ID, global currency and the wallet that carries both, corresponding to WorldID, WorldCoin (WLD) and WorldAPP respectively.

On July 24, 2023, Worldcoin officially launched the token WLD. When it was launched, the currency ushered in a lot of controversy, mainly due to the high degree of token centralization, and 5 market makers held the total circulation 91.74% of the total volume, and implies fixed pricing of call options; secondly, the token exhibits typical high market value and low circulation characteristics. Considering the project’s luxurious financing lineup, users suspect that this is another retail investor takeover project.

In addition to tokens, the unique iris biometrics of orb devices have also caused controversy in the market over privacy data protection. The centralized manufacturing of orb devices and the suspected possibility of backdoors have made people suspicious, and have also attracted the attention of government regulatory authorities. . In the process of commercialization, the unique local market operation mechanism has created a black market industrial chain, which has once again triggered the so-called "new colonial exploitation".

Despite various controversies, WLD has become a hard-core AI concept coin in the encryption sector due to its special relationship with OpenAI. Due to the popularity of AI this year, WLD has also taken advantage of the momentum. In February, under the influence of SORA, WLD soared 160% in a single week, rising from US$2.5 to US$6.77. In March, it rose to US$10.8, setting a record high. However, affected by the market sentiment and news, WLD has continued to decline and is currently trading at $2.87.

WLD价格走势，来源：Coinmarketcap

Looking at the project itself, Worldcoin has achieved certain results so far. According to official website data, currently, World ID users have covered up to 160 countries/regions, with more than 6 million ID verification people. Orb device certification has been carried out in 38 countries/regions, and the number of Orb devices manufactured has reached 3,154. Although it is far from Sam's original goal of reaching 1 billion users by the end of 2023, in terms of new projects on the identity recognition track, this data is not satisfactory.

Even so, from a long-term perspective, the regulatory conflicts and data security that weigh on the project have not yet been resolved, and are even likely to get worse.

Worldcoin’s official website claims that the regions where it has been approved to operate include Europe, Argentina, Mexico, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. However, at its core, the project’s operating areas are mostly underdeveloped areas. Kenya was once a WorldID applicant main areas. However, the Kenyan government quickly issued a ban and temporarily suspended Worldcoin’s registration and certification in the country. France, Germany, Spain and other regions have successively investigated and restricted Worldcoin. In March this year, Portugal’s data regulator CNPD ordered Sam Altman’s Worldcoin project to stop collecting biometric data for 90 days to prevent serious damage to citizens’ data protection rights.

Just recently, Hong Kong once again expressed its opposition to Worldcoin. After investigating six venues involved in operating the Worldcoin project, Hong Kong's Office of the Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data (PCPD) said that during operations in Hong Kong, Worldcoin scanned the faces and irises of 8,302 people for verification, but collecting facial images was not necessary for verification. Authenticity of participants is not necessary due to the fact that iris scanning device operators are already able to conduct this verification in person at operational locations, making scanning or collecting facial images an unnecessary step, ultimately concluding - Worldcoin Collector Face and iris images are unfair and unlawful and breach Hong Kong's data protection principles.

The opposition is not groundless. As early as the Worldcoin testing phase, there was news that hackers installed password-stealing malware on the devices of multiple Orb operators, allowing them to fully access the Worldcoin operator's backend data.

针对以上种种，Worldcoin也并非袖手旁观。对于数据安全问题，在今年3月，Worldcoin推出了个人托管计划，World ID注册用户可在手机上存储和加密生物特征数据而非运营后台，已注册用户可以要求删除虹膜代码。此外，Worldcoin创始团队也正积极与各地政府磋商，希望缓和监管的疑虑。但仍可看出，生物识别信息的敏感性在短时间仍难以消解，而用户最为集中的中国内地、美国也因法规难以推广，无疑限制了项目的可持续发展。

除了监管问题，就在近日，围绕币价的指控也扎到了Worldcoin上。

根据白皮书，在代币推出后的15年内，Worldcoin 初始供应量上限为100亿枚。在约定的15年之后，用户可通过治理决定是否开启通胀模式，规定每年最大通胀率为 1.5%。初始启动时的最大流通供应量将为1.43亿枚WLD，其中，4300万枚WLD分配给在项目Pre-Launch阶段使用Orb验证的用户，1亿借给5家在美国境外运营的做市商，贷款期限为三个月，到期做市商可以选择购买WLD代币以偿付。可以看出，这一机制暗含控制代币价格波动。

刨除做市商手中的代币，当时真实的初始流通量为4300万枚，而23年10月，由于做市商出借协议到期，Worldcoin宣布续签但收回了2500万枚 WLD 代币，进一步减少了流通。但仅仅在发行一年后,根据Orb API返回数据所得，WLD真实流通量已达到2.76亿，通胀率高达541%，贬值速度可见一斑。

从代币释放来看，第一年全部为社区代币解锁，第二年起将开启机构解锁，持续两年。按照代币解锁时间表，属于Tools for Humanity等早期团队和投资者的代币从7月24日开始解锁，每日解锁达662万枚WLD代币，约合1800万美元，解锁将持续730天。此前在7月10日，为吸引更多人士注册ID，项目方宣布未申领的WLD预留代币申领期限可延长一年，再度增加了隐性抛压。

大额解锁与抛压预备，WLD市场反应激烈，一路滑落到了1.9美元，回到其最初上线时价格。对此，项目方迅速赶来救火，7月16日，Tools for Humanity宣布更改TFH投资者和团队成员持有的 WLD 代币的解锁时间表，约80%的TFH投资者和团队成员 WLD 代币的解锁时间表将从3年延长至5年，第一年保持锁定，此后在接下来的四年里进行每日线性解锁，从数量来看，该部分释放数量从原有的约319万枚降低至200万枚，而每日解锁总量从 662万枚下降至540万枚。

WLD流通供应变化，来源：Worldcoin官网

尽管数量级并不存在显著差异，但由于解锁延长，WLD还是应声上涨45%来到了3.13美元，创下本月以来的最高价格。另一方面，也正由于解锁前的“恰到好处”的人为变更，利空吸筹后快速拉升这一典型洗盘行为，让WLD遭到了行业人士的欺诈指控。

DeFi Squared在X上发表长文，直指WLD团队通过改变发行量、做市商合约，以及在解锁之前发布公告进行价格操纵和误导，认为团队宣称保持低流通率是为防止价格变化过于激烈影响全民UBI收入，但预计到明年，早期投资VC等机构将释放10亿代币，而UBI拨款仅有6亿枚，风投所占据的代币总量占据流通的60%，这无疑伤害了代币持有者的利益，也不符合团队初衷。

值得注意的是，今年4月，Worldcoin基金会还宣布会在未来6个月每周向美国境外运营的机构交易公司的私募出售50万至150万枚WLD 。

其还提到，尽管没有得到证实，但每次宣布利好时，该团队或风投的某位成员都在利用内幕消息抢先进行交易。链上侦探ZachXBT也赞同他的观点，指责Worldcoin打着人道主义的幌子行使骗局，让团队内部人员获利。

无法否认的是，WLD已然是典型的高FDV低流通代币，作为顶级投资者站队的项目，后续流动性的接盘现象难以避免，这与其愿景无关，而是经济模型所决定的。从模型设置来看，与其他加密项目类似，项目方无法从中获取正向的商业利润，币价是维护该网络稳定的核心。但在运营侧，项目方还需要支付运营费用和硬件构建费用等等，据悉，每个Orb设备的造价约为4000美元。运营团队选择的盈利方式也如出一辙，售卖WLD，从数据来看，仅单个运营商偶尔每周抛售在交易所的代币总量达到2万枚WLD。

而这些费用又是由谁来买单？从持有者来看，近25%的流通WLD持有在韩国交易所Bithumb中，这意味着绝大部分持有者为韩国散户，这也是受直接冲击的接盘群体。镜头如果拉到韩国，Worldcoin在韩国的火爆肉眼可见，据当地的一家Orb运营商透露，尽管他们仅能接受100人的每日预定，但在可预定时间段，工作日和周末均已满员。

Bithumb交易所中持有WLD的走势，来源@DeFi Squared

可以确定的是，投资者购买WLD，绝大部分是为了其背后动听的AI故事，Sam Altman就是项目的灵魂支柱。但实际上，作为联创之一的Sam已然很久没有为项目发声，在搜索引擎上可搜索到的公开消息还是今年4月Sam与Worldcoin CEO Alex Blania前往马来西亚政府交流，其X平台也并无诸多相关信息发布，灵魂人物似乎对于该项目沉寂已久。

当然，Worldcoin也并非一无是处，其率先采取先进的隐私系统设计、后续推行的公链World Chain，以及尝试与PayPal和OpenAI等知名企业合作，均有可圈可点之处，一系列的事件代表着该项目绝对秉持着长期运营的理念，不仅为加密领域的推广带来了积极的影响，也让大众再度审视了主权世界中的普惠理念。但仅从代币来看，Worldcoin的市场面堪称惨淡，项目方的消息面掌控价格走势，最终沦为了AI红利的一份子。

无人输血的UBI似乎再度成为了韭菜的接盘故事，宏大愿景的没落或许正印证了罗曼·罗兰的名言，“缺乏理想的现实主义毫无意义，但脱离现实的理想主义，是没有生命的。”

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