After surviving the BTC sell-off, it's a buyer's market again

Recently, with the German government’s sell-off, approximately 48,000 Bitcoin assets have flowed into the market. At this time, the redistribution of the assets originally belonging to Mt. Gox is about to come. In this article, we will examine how these new forces in the seller's market and ETF products will move market prices.

Summary

• Current status of currency holdings by large entities: Currently, large entities hold a total of approximately 4.9 million BTC, accounting for 25% of the market supply. Among them, CEX and ETF custodians account for the largest proportion of assets.
• Market reaction: After the German government sold Bitcoin, the market favored sellers in the short term, and then new capital flows poured in again, re-supporting the market.
• Market Profitability: Despite volatility, the majority of Bitcoin supply remains below the current spot price, showing that market profitability remains very strong.

Evaluating Large Entities

The Bitcoin holder landscape is always evolving, therefore, we need to continually adapt our research framework over time. Its main participants include miners, trading platforms, independent entities (such as Mt. Gox trustees), government law enforcement and institutional-level custodians and ETFs. These large entities have a significant influence on the market.

Holdings Analysis

The chart below shows the amount of BTC held by these large entities.

• CEX: Holds approximately 3 million Bitcoins and is the largest source of seller pressure in the market.
• US ETF balance: With the launch of 11 new US spot ETFs, a total of 887,000 Bitcoins are held, becoming the second largest holder of Bitcoin assets.
• Miners including Patoshi: 705,000 Bitcoin, although they were a major source of seller pressure in the past, their influence gradually waned as the halving event progressed.
• Government entities: Hold 207,000 Bitcoins, of which government law enforcement agencies regularly sell seized Bitcoins in batches, causing short-term impacts on the market.
• Mt. Gox Trustee: Responsible for the custody of Mt. Gox’s assets after bankruptcy. It currently holds 139,000 Bitcoins. Its asset reallocation will affect the market.

图一：大型实体持有的比特币余额

Market Dynamic Analysis

In the figure below, by comparing the net flow changes of Miner and CEX, as well as the wallet on the ETF chain, we can see the extent of the impact of different entities on the market. The net flow of the Miner group fluctuates less, while the assets of CEX and ETF fluctuate significantly, which has a more significant impact on the market.

Miner Net Flow: Over the past 12 months, weekly changes have typically been around ±500 BTC, showing that its market supply correlation has weakened.

CEX vs. ETFs: Asset volatility typically reaches ±4,000 BTC, indicating that these entities may have a 4 to 8 times greater impact on the market than Miner.

图二：大型实体总流量比较（7日总和）

Seller Pressure Analysis

Separate analysis of net asset outflows from large entities can measure the seller pressure they bring. We can draw three important results:

• Miner pressure: When prices fluctuate, seller pressure from miners often increases.
• ETF outflows: After Bitcoin prices hit a new high in March, asset outflows from ETFs dominated, and this mainly came from GBTC products.
• Government selling: The 48,000 Bitcoins sold by the German government were quickly consumed in a short period of time, causing a significant impact on the market. But most of the outflows occurred after the price dropped to $54,000, suggesting that the market was actually reacting ahead of the news.

图三：大型实体卖出总额

The chart below shows the cumulative net outflows from these large entities since the all-time high of $73,000. We can see from this that compared to the torrent of assets from government sellers, ETF products and trading platforms, the seller pressure from Miner is relatively small.

CEX holdings remain the largest and most persistent source of seller pressure. However, even if asset outflows from CEX are unattainable, we can still see the horrific scale of the recent asset sell-off from the German government.

图四：大型实体总出售规模

Market stability and speculation

Market stability: a positive signal for ETF capital flows

After experiencing long-term price shocks, all ETF products have experienced a period of net asset outflows. With the price falling to a low of $54,000, ETF holders' assets have now fallen below their average cost basis and are currently only $58,200.

In response to the long-term market decline, ETF products have experienced significant positive investment for the first time since early June, with inflows exceeding $1 billion last week.

图五：美国比特币现货ETF资金流

投机性减弱：投资者兴趣的转变

交易平台的资金出入量往往是衡量投资者兴趣和市场流动性的有力指标。随着比特币价格在3月创下历史新高后，交易平台的资金流量明显下降，而比特币交易量 此后则一直保持在每天约15亿美元左右。

与以太坊 的流入/流出结构进行比较，投资者对比特币的兴趣更为稳定，以太坊的流入/流出量在2021年牛市顶峰时曾与比特币相当，但如今已明显减少，这进一步印证了投资者投机兴趣的降低。

图六：交易平台比特币/以太坊流入/流出量

供需平衡与市场心态

已实现收益/损失的数据揭示了市场供需之间的微妙平衡。

尽管市场从高点回调超过25%，但已实现损失并未显著增加，这表明市场并未陷入恐慌性抛售。相反，投资者似乎在等待更好的入场时机，市场心态趋于谨慎乐观。

图七：已实现收益/损失

净卖方市场向买方市场转变

将流入交易平台的比特币和以太坊视为卖方压力，与稳定币的流入量进行比较——因为稳定币的流入量代表了市场需求，通过这个指标，我们能够评估市场是如何在买方和卖方之间取得大体平衡的。

• 接近零的值表明市场处于平衡状态，即买方流入量与主要两种资产的卖方压力相当。
• 正值表明市场处于买方状态，其中，稳定币买方超过主要资产的卖方。
• 负值表明市场处于卖方状态，其中，新流入市场的稳定币吸收了超卖的资产量。

如图八所示，自2023年中期以来，市场一直处于净卖方状态。但在过去几个月里，它一直在向另一侧进行转变。

图八：主要数字资产的买/卖方资产流入

现货累计交易量增量(CVD，衡量CEX中，买入/卖出交易量之间的净差额)指标也显示了类似的市场动态。

我们可以看到，自3月比特币价格创下历史新高以来，卖方占据了市场的主导地位。然而，截至上周，CVD已录得自7月以来的第一个净买方指标，表明现货市场面临的卖方压力有所减弱。

图九：所有交易平台CVD指标（7日移动平均）

投资者盈利能力仍然强劲

随着比特币价格跌至5.35万美元的局部低点，投资者持有的处于亏损状态的供应量比例大幅飙升，已达到总供应量的25%左右。这使得利润供应百分比指标大幅回落，跌至其长期平均值的75%，达以往牛市调整期间的历史谷值。

图十：利润供应百分比的震荡情况

投资者盈利能力的分析揭示了不同投资者群体的市场反应。

过去30日中，短期持有者在市场回调中遭受了较大损失，其盈利能力急剧下降，超过66%的供应量转盈为亏。

然而，长期持有者则表现出较强的韧性，其盈利能力几乎未受影响。这表明长期投资者对市场的信心更为坚定，他们更注重长期价值而非短期波动。

图十一：不同投资者群体的盈利能力变化

总结

尽管Miner历来都是卖方压力的主要来源，然而，我们注意到，随着每次减半，他们对市场的影响都在递减。相反，来自ETF产品和CEX的资产对市场价格开始发挥越来越重要的作用。

随着德国政府的行动，市场在上个月吸收了4.8万枚比特币。来自德国政府的卖方压力被重新出现的买方需求吸收，这使得原先市场面临的强大卖方压力得以缓解。而此后新的需求方重新出现，这刺激了价格的未来积极走向。

短期持有者无疑在之前的一个月中饱受挑战，最近的回调使他们的很大一部分资产处于亏损状态。

但与此相反，成熟的投资者仍然坚定不移，其盈利能力几乎没有下降，这凸显了他们对市场仍旧抱持有坚定的信心，并继续坚定地贯彻着稳健的投资策略。

文章来源：https://insights.glassnode.com

原文作者：UkuriaOC, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode

原文链接：https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-29-2024/

校对：Akechi、Anna

排版：Anna

审核：Amber

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