The Forgotten Corner: Can Sendit drive NFT recovery?

Written in front

The recent popularity of Send it on Solana has made the stagnant NFT market a hot search again for a long time. The market attention also makes everyone think: Can NFTs recover and be revived? It has been two years since the NFT narrative went from the 2022 Spring Carnival to being completely marginalized now. Even in this bull market, NFT has not seen signs of recovery. The new narrative is weak. Opensea, BAYC, and Azuki, star projects that were in full swing at the time, have almost disappeared from the current market. NFT is completely dead, which seems to be the default consensus of most Web3 users.

The miserable current situation

1. The trading volume has shrunk severely

NFT 市场周平均交易量 （source：nftpulse）

From August 2021 to May 2022 (the so-called NFT summer), the average weekly trading volume of the market was more than 1 billion US dollars, reaching its peak 3.24 billion US dollars, which is comparable to the total transaction volume of Uniswap. But even when Defi is in the cold, Uniswap's daily trading volume is still over one billion US dollars, while the weekly trading volume of the NFT market is now only about US$100 million, less than 10% of its peak. What is even more disappointing is that in this bull market cycle, other sectors have rebounded to a greater or lesser extent, while NFT is completely decoupled from the market in terms of market popularity and the amount of funds entering the market, as if it is a mess that cannot support the wall. appearance.

2. The trading market continues to be sluggish

交易市场现状（source：Dappradar）

The entire NFT trading market presents a tripartite scene of OpenSea, Blur and Magic Eden, accounting for nearly 80% of the market share. OpenSea is a typical company that rests on its laurels. It has not seen any positive measures in two years. It barely maintains its first place by relying on its huge user base. The transaction volume has shrunk by more than 90%. The platform’s monthly revenue is only 740,000 US dollars, and negative The news-ridden Curve ($790,000) is comparable, and the two are also inseparable.

Blur once showed a trend of coming from behind, but with the weakening of airdrop incentives and the end of Blast, it failed to hold up the banner.

Magic Eden has an advantage in the BTC and SOL ecosystems. Unfortunately, these two chains cannot compare with ETH in terms of user volume or project market value. A large part of the current transaction volume relies on potential airdrop expectations.

3. Blue chips are in decline, and the wealth creation effect is no longer

For many users who have been deeply involved in the last round of NFT (especially Ethereum NFT), the most intuitive impression of NFT is a pile of zeros in the warehouse Small pictures and blue chips that are forced to cut their flesh.

头部 NFT 交易量及地板价（source：OpenSea）

This is the situation for blue chips, not to mention those small and medium-sized projects. Except for a few strong bankers who can barely stand on the floor, the rest are no different from .jpg files.

At the same time, project updates in the market have also come to a standstill. Currently, there are basically 0 popular NFT projects waiting to be launched on

The few projects that can rely on celebrity influence or community support to break through the circle cannot escape the fate of peaking at the launch. There will no longer be evergreen projects like the previous round.

The dawn of Ordinals and ERC404

1. Bitcoin NFT has insufficient stamina

In December 23, the sales of Ordinals (Bitcoin NFT) reached US$881 million, once exceeding the sales of Ethereum and Solana, although it was 22 years away There is still a certain gap between the two years, but at least the market has seen the dawn of revival.

比特币生态 NFT 数据（source：OKX）

In the fourth quarter of 23, blue-chip projects like Bitcoin Frog and Node Monkey emerged in the market. The floor price of BTC Frogs reached a maximum of 0.42 BTC, and the daily trading volume exceeded 50 BTC. The highest price of NodeMonkes was close to 1 BTC. The market value exceeded BAYC, the leader of Ethereum NFT at the time, and the daily trading volume was 163 BTC.

Ordinals 市场成交量（source：Block）

But the good times did not last long. In January 2024, the trading volume of the BTC NFT market fell by more than 24.7% month-on-month. By May, the Bitcoin NFT trading volume dropped by 80.5%, and the number of NFT traders was higher than the previous few. There was also a decline in April, especially for Bitcoin. The number of traders decreased from 393,000 in April to 114,400. The total market value fell by more than 90%, and the leading projects all fell by more than 80%. In the following months, the Couldn't reverse the decline.

Ordinals 将 NFT 的用户扩大到了 BTC 生态上，为整个行业带来了一批更高净值的参与者。但是由于 BTC 生态存在的高手续费和不友好的用户体验以及缺失的 NFT 社区文化，其对项目价格短期上涨的需求也更迫切，大量的参与者眼见盈利预期不再便匆匆离场，市场的飞轮往往来得快结束的也快 ，比特币 NFT 用三个月就走完了 ETH 三年的路。更核心的问题还是 Ordinals 没有解决小图片叙事乏力的问题，实际上是新瓶装旧酒，炒作资金离场便一地狼藉。

Pandora 昙花一现

今年二月的 Pandora 迎来了一波暴涨，ERC404 图币二象性的概念带给了市场，尤其是 NFT 玩家很大的惊喜，但是社区有很大的声量表示这可能是复兴 NFT 重要契机。

ERC404 的叙事非常有魅力，将 NFT 进行碎片化交易，解决了让整个 NFT 赛道一直以来的入场门槛问题。把行业内最大的两个市场——图和币的流动性融合在一起，进一步释放 NFT 与 Token 的双向流动性，具有了“可抽卡”“原生碎片化”和“ AMM 流动性”的新特点。

ERC404 在 DEX 的历史成交量（source：Dune）

$PANDORA 在一周内飙升了 43 倍，周交易量超过 3 亿美元，NFT 价格最高触及 10ETH，一时之间风头两无。但是这样的局面没有维持多久，之前市场满心期待 ERC404 协议的爆发并没有到来，反而是市场在三月份斩到了脚踝。交易量几乎归零，Pandora 尽管地板价仍然是 1.2ETH，但是 best offer 只有 0.2ETH，而且近几个月只有几笔成交量，原先高喊百亿市值的 Holder 被套在了山顶，割肉的机会都没给，整个板块基本彻底结束了。

图币结合的新玩法给 NFT 带了一定程度的创新，但并不能解决 NFT 流动性的问题。并且关于对 NFT 碎片化的尝试并不是第一次，21 年的 Fractional 和 Feisty Doge NFT都曾经引爆过一轮热潮，但是最终都一地鸡毛，ERC404 也像是一场悲剧的重演。

Send it 的眨眼之间

Sendit 地板价走势图 （source：Coingecko）

回归到前言，SEND 将大众的视线重新引回 NFT，一觉醒来翻倍的美梦在大盘震荡期间显得尤为吸引人，而随着整体市场稍稍回暖，大家的关注点转移，SEND 的价格一夜回到解放前。从地板价和交易量的下降趋势来看，市场情绪偏向悲观，短期内 Sendit 的市场可能继续面临高波动性。作为 Blinks 生态的首推应用，且被 Solana 创始人打 call 的项目，SEND 仍需要更多内容和时间来丰富自己的故事和发展。

未来的路：归零还是重生？

NFT 市场萎靡的一个很直接的原因是是 NFT 流动性不足：缺少交易对手、估值困难、无法拆分的特性以及底层技术支持不足。从某种程度上说，谁解决了 NFT 流动性的问题，谁就能赢得整个市场。NFT 碎片化、NFTfi、Blur、Ordinals、ERC404、SEND 本质上都是在试图解决这个问题，虽然他们都没有能够给出一个完整有效的解决方案，但是这些项目都做出了非常不错的尝试，并且也一度得到了市场的积极反馈，这一方面表明整个 NFT 的基本盘还是非常大，同时也说明尽管处于深熊，对于 NFT 的创新仍然在摸索中，现在说 NFT 结束了还是为时尚早。

从更宏观的角度上说，NFT 仍然会是链接 Web2 和 Web3 非常重要的桥梁，其在现实资产映射、社区连接、品牌建设以及游戏赋能等方面优势仍然存在。NFT 和 Defi 是最 Web3 和 Crypto native 的叙事，只要 Crypto 仍然继续，关于 NFT 的故事就不会停下来。

供稿：Riffi / Mat / Darl

特别鸣谢：感谢以上小伙伴对本期内容做出的突出贡献。

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