WLD surged 46% in a week! Significantly extending the token unlocking time, World Chain will be launched soon

This site (120btC.coM): Since March, WLD (Worldcoin) has continued to trend downward, with the unit price falling from the highest point of nearly 12 USDT to the lowest of 1.72 USDT. The fundamental reason is that in addition to the overall decline in the market, the more important factor is the large and continuous selling pressure on WLD's token unlocking.

However, in recent days, Worldcoin has made two consecutive changes to the token release rules, causing the token to rise by 8% and 13% in one hour respectively. How big was the original selling pressure of WLD, and what impact did the two modifications have on the continued unlocking.

WLD Token Unlocking Information

WLD Token was launched on July 14, 2023, with an initial circulation of 143 million, including 100 million loans from market makers, for a total of 10 billion. The actual initial circulation minus the loan portion is 43 million.

The first three years of WLD token release are the most rapid. In the first year, all community tokens will be unlocked. From the second year, institutional unlocking will begin and last for two years.

One year after the token was issued, the real circulation of WLD has risen to 276 million, and the inflation rate is as high as 541%. Please note that the actual circulation volume is based on the data returned by OrbAPI (click to call).

Token Unlocks uses the upper limit data of theoretical circulation. The initial circulation is 500 million, and the current circulation is 1.65 billion. However, in fact, these tokens still need to be transferred into real circulation by governance control, and it depends on The rate at which these tokens enter circulating supply is controlled by governance.

Three days ago, WLD celebrated its first anniversary and started unlocking TFH (Tools for Humanity). The theoretical circulation will increase from the current 1.65 billion to 6.5 billion. Correspondingly, 6.62 million coins are unlocked every day. Based on the current unit price of 2.8 USDT, there will be a daily selling pressure of US$15.42 million.

If calculated based on the ratio of the current real circulation to the upper limit, the daily selling pressure is approximately 2.76/16.5×1542=2.58 million US dollars. However, how long this ratio will last and how it will change cannot be predicted.

What is the impact of modifying the unlocking rules?

Worldcoin modified the token release rules twice respectively. The first modification occurred on July 10. Worldcoin announced that the application period for unclaimed WLD reserved tokens would be extended by one year. This proposal actually increased the number of WLD selling pressure.

The background of this part of the token is that shortly after the launch of Worldcoin in July 2023, the Worldcoin Foundation introduced the WLD token reservation mechanism, allowing users who have not yet passed Orb verification to reserve WLD tokens and use them at some time in the future Click exchange. Enable as many people as possible to participate in Worldcoin, regardless of whether the Orb device is available or not.

This modification allows WLD that was originally unavailable to re-enter the market, increasing the number of WLD that can be sold in the next year. There is no public information available on the specific number of WLD tokens affected, but according to a tweet from Worldcoin, this change affects 6 million users.

TFH Unlocking Extension

Yesterday, Worldcoin announced again that the token locking period for early Worldcoin contributors to Tools for Humanity will be extended, and the token unlocking period for 80% of TFH investors and team members will be adjusted from two years to four Year.

According to the original release plan, the TFH team and investors will unlock 3.19 million tokens every day, with a current value of approximately US$7.44 million. The modified daily unlocking is reduced to (319×80%÷2+319×20% ) = 1.914 million pieces, and the information given in the Worldcoin announcement is that about 2 million pieces are unlocked every day.

To sum up, the number of tokens unlocked has dropped from 6.62 million to approximately 5.4 million per day, with no order of magnitude change.

Conclusion

Although this token release modification has not substantially reversed the continuous selling pressure on WLD, WLD has risen by 29% since the announcement. Worldcoin has also demonstrated its news manipulation many times in the past year. Trading ability should theoretically be "long short, short long".

But World Chain is about to go online (officially said it will be launched at the end of this summer), and if its specific rules are given actual use cases for WLD, the fundamentals will be reversed again, which deserves readers' follow-up attention.

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