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Homeweb3.0Reflection on the current market situation: Blame the rules of the game, don't blame the participants, the general election and interest rate cuts are still catalysts

Reflection on the current market situation: Blame the rules of the game, dont blame the participants, the general election and interest rate cuts are still catalysts

Author: Tommy

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

During @EthCC I spent a lot of time with serious builders, VCs ( VC ) Communicate one-on-one with market makers. Here are some of my reflections on the current state of the industry:

1. Blame the rules of the game, not the players

"We love consumer applications, but 90% of the projects we closed this year were infrastructure projects." A lot of construction Investors and venture capital firms agree that we have too many people building infrastructure and a lack of real consumer applications with users. Most of the venture capital firms I talk to express interest in consumer decentralized applications (dApps). However, looking at recent financing announcements, it is easy to see that the market is still dominated by infrastructure projects.

This is a vicious cycle that is hard to blame on any single stakeholder:

  • Projects and VCs want to list on large centralized exchanges (CEX) with good liquidity
  • Centralized exchanges want to market Activity (high fully diluted valuation, FDV) and listings of projects with good incentives from top backers
  • Infrastructure projects have valuation premiums due to the resources required to build, so more capital is invested in these projects, forming A cycle.

2. VC interest in early-stage investments at high fully diluted valuations (FDV) has declined

Project valuations have increased significantly since the fourth quarter of last year. Many private financing or Series A rounds have project valuations in excess of $1 billion FDV, especially those related to AI.

On the other hand, most of the recent large-scale launches have been underwhelming (e.g. $BLAST under $2 billion; $ZK and $W at $3 billion; $ZRO at $4 billion). The overall altcoin market is weak, with many VC-backed projects trading at lower FDV than their last private funding rounds.

In the current market environment, the chance of VC getting 50-100 times return is almost impossible. Not to mention, VC is also subject to a lock-in period (~1 year lock-in + 2-3 years vesting period). These projects may need to survive the next bear market and compete with more new projects that are able to attract users quickly due to the short attention span of the industry.

Therefore, more VCs are looking for liquidity strategies (if their investment strategy allows), or over-the-counter (OTC) transactions at significant discounts relative to the last round valuation (or current FDV if the project is in the process of trading) ). For VCs with more resources, they are incubating projects founded by former employees to ensure they are the earliest investors with higher return potential.

Many VC analysts and research partners are turning to join the emerging first-level or second-level blockchain (L1/L2) ecosystem, or start their own projects. Direct involvement in project development appears to be a higher expected value (EV) option than investment. One advantage is that they can use their experience and connections to raise capital for the projects they are involved in because they understand the concerns and needs of VCs.

Additionally, overall underperformance of altcoins has resulted in lower returns on allocated capital (dpi) for limited partner (LP) funds. It's difficult to raise money for a new fund if it can't deliver a strong track record. Some of these funds have spent most of their capital in the last year, and even if attractive investment opportunities now arise, they have no funds left to use.

3. 古いワインを新しいボトルに

予想ほど普及しなかったコンセプトが、新しい形に再パッケージ化されました。たとえば、Intent はかつて話題になりましたが、すぐに分散型自律組織 (DA) や再ステーキングなどの概念に置き換えられました。

現在、多くのプロジェクト、特に大規模言語モデル (LLM) やアルゴリズム要素を組み込んだインテント駆動型プロジェクトは、自らを「チェーン抽象化」、さらには「AI」とブランド名を変更しています。

さらに、分散型モノのインターネット (DePin) プロジェクトのほとんどは、ベンチャー キャピタル企業の注目を集めるために、ブランド戦略に「AI」要素を組み込んでいます。

この現象は、セキュリティ トークン化プロジェクトがこのサイクルで実世界資産 (RWA) に変わる最後のサイクルに似ています。

市場が認識する物語を見つけるのは簡単ではありませんが、リブランディングには何の問題もないと思います。しかし、市場は依然として、古い概念の再パッケージ化ではなく、次の真新しい物語を待っています。

4. すべての物語が「投資可能」であるわけではありません

人気のある物語と人気のある分野の間には違いがあります。

アカウントの抽象化は、より良いユーザー エクスペリエンスを提供する一般的な説明です。しかし、これは垂直分野ではなく、ウォレットからゲーム、分散型金融(DeFi)からソーシャルファイナンス(SocialFi)など、さまざまなアプリケーションシナリオに組み込まれる機能です。販売するにはまだ具体的な製品が必要です。つまり、単に「アカウント抽象化を行います」というプロジェクトはなく、「アカウント抽象化をサポートするウォレットを作成しました」または「アカウント抽象化機能を備えたゲームを作成しました」などです。 。

その業種(製品)を分析せずに、最も人気のあるナラティブだけを追いかけることは、間違った業種の最も人気のあるナラティブに投資している可能性があるため、VCにとって危険です。

5. マーケットメーカーは安全ではありません

マーケットメーカーは確かに収益性の高いビジネスですが、一部の米国プレーヤーが規制上の問題で市場から撤退し、新規プレーヤーが流入し続けているため、この分野の競争は激化しています。

一部のマーケットメーカーは、取引に勝つために価格競争に積極的に参加します。オプション モード (ほとんどのマーケット メーカーが好むモード) では、マーケット メーカーは売り注文のためにプロジェクト チームからトークンを借り、買い注文のために安定した通貨を投資する必要があります。これには、多額の資本が必要になるか (自己資金を使用する場合)、費用がかかります (他から借りて利息を支払う場合)。したがって、オプションモデルはマーケットメーカーにとって「コストがかからない」わけではありません。

取引を獲得するには、マーケットメーカーは以下を備えている必要があります: i) 良好な関係と評判、i i) 魅力的な提案、i i) クライアントに付加価値サービスを提供。

プロジェクトチームもさまざまなマーケットメーカーとますます精通しており、交渉におけるマーケットメーカーの情報の非対称性の優位性は失われ、市場競争はますます激化しています。

6. 市場の触媒(ETF、選挙、金利)

ほとんどの人はETH ETFが上場されるのを待っており、上場後にBTC ETFのように値動きが上昇することを期待しています。

BTC ETFとは異なり、ETH ETFがイーサリアム関連トークンの強力な触媒となることが期待されています。

ETHに続いて、より多くのアルトコインETFが承認されるという期待もあります(次はSOL ETFになる可能性がありますか?)。

さらに多くのアルトコインETFが承認された場合、プロジェクトの最終目標は、トップの集中取引所(CEX)に上場することではなく、ETFの承認を得る事になるでしょう。これにより、古いコインに対する市場の認識が完全に変わります。

もう一つの市場のきっかけは米国選挙であり、仮想通貨に優しい政権と有利な政策立案者が選出されるという期待が込められています。

今年利下げが予想されており、2025年に利下げが行われる可能性が高くなります。これにより、仮想通貨市場により多くの流動性がもたらされます。

現在の市場状況はいくぶん精彩を欠いているものの、大多数の人は今後 2 ~ 3 四半期の見通しについて楽観的です。落ち着いて、あまり焦らず、自信と期待を持ってください。

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