Analyst: Trump’s election may trigger global inflation again, which may not necessarily be beneficial to Bitcoin

This site (120btc.coM): The U.S. presidential election has entered the last four months, and the battle between former U.S. President Donald Trump and current U.S. President Joe Biden, representing the Republican Party, is heating up.

But since Trump was shot last weekend, his support and exposure have soared rapidly in the community. Because of his pro-cryptocurrency stance, it has also stimulated the rise of Bitcoin, betting that Trump's victory will create a regulatory environment conducive to the growth of cryptocurrency.

Analyst: Trump’s election may once again trigger global inflation

In addition to the possibility that Trump will provide a friendly regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, another possibility that the market generally believes will boost the sharp rise of cryptocurrencies is: the United States After maintaining a long-term high interest rate policy, the Bank will soon start cutting interest rates.

However, according to a report by the US financial media "CNBC" yesterday (17th), many analysts pointed out that the high tariffs and low tax economic policies introduced by Trump during his previous term in office were themselves prone to triggering inflation. Now, If re-elected, his America-first policies may continue to push up costs around the world and trigger a rebound in inflation.

In this regard, Michael Metcalfe, head of the macro strategy department of State Street Global Markets, said: The policies introduced by Trump in his second term are more likely to trigger more severe inflation than in the first term. . Compared with 2016, when inflation has been low and inflation expectations are low...but 2024 will be very different from 2025. Inflation is higher, inflation expectations are higher, and we are still in this inflationary mindset.

In addition, Nomura analyst Gareth Nicholson also said that if Trump is elected, his policies will also have an overall negative impact on Asian stock markets: From a macro perspective, this will have a negative impact on the global economy. will lead to inflation (perhaps even stagnant inflation) and will accelerate more supply chain shifts within Asia.

Trump Treasury Secretary candidate: The Federal Reserve should remain patient in cutting interest rates

On the other hand, Trump has already stated that if he wins the election, he will consider inviting JPMorgan Chase, known as the strongest banker in the United States, to implement it Minister Jamie Dimon serves as Finance Minister.

However, although Fed Chairman Powell has recently hinted that an interest rate cut may come soon, Dimon recently pointed out that the Fed needs to remain patient when making decisions at the next interest rate meeting, suggesting not to cut interest rates too quickly. : Inflation is heading in the right direction, but it would be better if the Fed waited. I believe that there are many factors that may cause inflation to rise again in the future, including expansion of government spending, military competition in the world, adjustments to trade institutions, and large investments in the green economy.

At the same time, Trump has recently directly warned that the Federal Reserve should avoid cutting interest rates before the November election: Maybe the Fed will cut interest rates before the election and before November 5, even though they know they should not do so.

Trump pointed out that current interest rates must be maintained until economic conditions change significantly. He believes that although some people hope to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, under the current circumstances, this is very difficult.

To sum up, if it is true as analysts say, inflation will rebound after Trump takes office, which may hinder the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. If high interest rates are maintained for a longer time, then Bitcoin will Whether cryptocurrencies can still rise is a question mark?

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