BTC Nears Decision Point as Key Inflation Metrics Loom, STX Outperforms

The German government is nearing the conclusion of its significant Bitcoin sell-off, a move that has been closely watched by the crypto community.

The German government is nearing the conclusion of its significant Bitcoin ( BTC ) sell-off, a move that has been closely watched by the crypto community. A once $3 billion US balance currently sits at $895 million US.

Demand for the Bitcoin ETFs in the US has also returned, with the last three sessions averaging just over $200 million US in inflows which is above the $125 million US all-time daily average.

Next Macroeconomic Catalyst We have two major inflation metrics to come. Tonight, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 10:30 pm AEST. The expectation is for a 0.1% increase in the month-on-month reading.

Tomorrow, the Producer Price Index (PPI), where 0.1% is expected. PPI measures the change in the price of finished goods and services producers sell. While CPI measures the change in prices of goods and services for consumers.

Results outside expectations on either of these key metrics of inflation could result in market volatility.

Fear and greed currently reads 29; last month this figure read 74.

Hot Take Weak jobs data last week is one of the cracks we have been waiting to see in the US economy these last few months. We had worse-than-expected employment data, and all eyes are on the Fed for hints on when they will step in here. As expected, or better than expected inflation data will be another step towards this reality. The market has already started to expect the end of September 2024.

I’m watching the market closely now for clear signs of strength in the coming days and weeks.

Related: Glassnode: Over 2.8M BTC Held by Short-Term Investors Now Underwater After Recent Price Drop

Bitcoin – BTC Bitcoin continues to hold steady at the previous month’s lows, as shown below. Continuing to use these monthly levels as a framework, below are two potential scenarios.

Bullish Scenario Bulls continue to defend at these lows, and we start to see a move towards the monthly mid-range of $66,000 USD.

Bearish Scenario Failure to garner any interest from buyers could cause prices to slump back towards the previous lows under $54,000 USD.

My Thoughts Any sign of strength here from the bulls could send us above $65k faster than what people are expecting.

Related: Telegram’s ‘Notcoin’ Teams Up with 1inch and Sign to Launch ‘Triangle’, a New Accelerator for TON Apps Stacks – STX Stacks, a Bitcoin infrastructure token, has been catching my eye these last few days as it’s been one of the few assets on my watchlist that has outperformed Bitcoin this week. Below is a schematic of what I would be looking for if this was a bullish move building.

Bullish Scenario Holding above this Key High (grey box) is critical for building a bullish market structure. If we do so, we could then see $2.54 and $2.85 as next key Fibonacci targets.

Bearish Scenario Failure to hold above this new local high could see new lows, under $1.24.

My Thoughts This was one of the early movers during the Q4 2023 rally, I’ll be keeping a close eye on it to see how it continues to perform.

Ondo Finance – ONDO One of the top performers compared to Bitcoin in recent days, Ondo is nearing a critical level. Using a Fibonacci Retracement tool, here are two scenarios.

This differs from the Fibonacci Extensions tool, which measures from the most recent high to low. This measurement takes the previous significant low to high instead.

Bullish Scenario Ondo is able to flip the grey box into support, creating a bullish market structure. From there we would want to see higher highs and higher lows develop towards the mid range of $1.105.

Bearish Scenario This is simply just a bearish retest, and we go lower under $0.725

My Thoughts Very early to tell if this is going to flip resistance and build some bullish market structure. I will be looking for strength across the market (Bitcoin, Ethereum) and then watching charts like this to become more developed.

See you all again next week.

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