Cycle Capital: Mentougou repayment selling pressure analysis

Mentougou Bankruptcy Case

MtGox was established in July 2010. It is a Japanese exchange and the earliest and largest exchange in the currency circle. Its trading volume once accounted for more than 80%. In 2013, 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen from Mentougou, causing the exchange to go bankrupt. Approximately 200,000 tokens were subsequently recovered. Since 2014, investors and the court-appointed trustee have launched a lengthy compensation lawsuit for the 200,000 coins. There are approximately 60,000 BTC used for payment of various fees, and there are approximately 140,000 BTC remaining.

Debt Transactions

After the incident, while waiting for the long time for the results, institutions have been acquiring Mentougou’s debts. At the same time, debt transactions between individuals are also common. For example, in 2019, Fortress Investment Group sent out extensive inquiry emails to creditors and purchased BTC at a price of US$900, which was twice the price of Bitcoin when Mentougou went bankrupt. The price of debt transactions will fluctuate with market conditions. If the original creditor is worried that it will not be repaid, it can recover part of its principal by selling the debt.

Compensation Plan

In 2021, Mentou Communication passed a compensation plan, and creditors can get back the remaining value of the exchange.

According to the compensation plan, since the stolen assets can no longer be recovered, Mentougou Exchange can only compensate creditors for approximately 23.6% of their original claims. If the creditor chooses to accept early one-time compensation, there will be a discount and the compensation rate is only 21%; if not, the creditor may have to wait for a long time, and the final compensation may be more or less. At present, the proportion of creditors who receive lump-sum compensation in advance cannot be found.

The composition of the compensation assets is divided into two parts. One part is cash, derived from the BTC sold by the Japanese government during the high point in 2017, and the other part is BTC. Cash is 5%-10%, BTC is 95%-90%, the specific ratio can be selected. It can be seen that more than 90% of the compensation is in BTC.

Regarding the claim time (which is also the time when BTC enters the market), it may take two to three months. A total of 5 exchanges will accept the BTC used by Mentougou for repayment and then distribute it to creditor accounts. Each exchange's schedule varies. Kraken takes 90 days, Bitstamp takes 60 days, BitGo 20 days, SBI VC Trade and Bitbank will all complete the payment within 14 days. This time is the maximum time and may be earlier.

In addition, the deadline for early one-time compensation is October 31, 2024. This time will not be modified unless approved by the court.

Current Progress

In May 2024, the BTC in the Mentougou cold wallet moved for the first time since 2018, causing market panic. On July 5, 2024, 47,000 tokens were moved to the Mentougou account address, of which 1,545 BTC were transferred to bitbank, and compensation began. On that day, the German government’s selling of BTC was superimposed, and the largest single-day drop exceeded 8%.

As of July 12, 138,000 BTC are still in Mentougou’s account address. It can be considered that Mentougou’s selling pressure has not actually entered the market. The decline on July 5 was a partial realization of the expected decline in Mentougou selling pressure.

图：门头沟账户余额

图：门头沟账户近期转账记录

Selling pressure analysis

Mentougou creditors will sell some BTC, but they should not sell all.

From the perspective of profitability, based on cost calculation, when Mentougou went bankrupt, the BTC price was US$485. If it is the original creditor, based on the current price, BTC has increased by 120 times; the amount of BTC paid by Mentougou is about 20% of the original holding amount, so the profit is about 24 times. Even for debt acquisition, there are more than 10 times the return. In addition, debt acquisition institutions may hold more BTC. They are optimistic about BTC in the long term and will not sell them all.

From the perspective of holders, during the long litigation process, the widespread creditor's rights trading market gave paper creditors ample opportunities to exit. People who are willing to buy debt should mostly be long-term holders of BTC.

Assuming that 75% of the people who accept early one-time repayment are 105,750 BTC, the discount is 11%, and the actual BTC used for repayment is 94,117; and it is assumed that 30%, 50%, and 70% The selling ratio and the selling time of 1 to 3 months can calculate the amount of BTC selling under different circumstances. As shown in the table below:

这样的供应量对市场的影响有多大呢？可以参考近期德国政府造成的BTC供应量，以及该时间段内BTC ETF的需求情况来进一步分析。

对比德国政府抛售BTC的市场影响

德国政府自6月19日开始，通过中心化交易所陆续出售其持有的5万枚BTC。截至7月12日，其地址中剩余6394枚BTC，也就是在23天的时间中售出了大约4.37万枚BTC，按照5.5万美元计算，价值大约为24亿美元。

在该期间，日线插针最大跌幅约为19%（从66400下跌至53500），日线实体柱跌幅约为14%（从64800下跌至55900）。最大单日跌幅出现在7月5日，该日内门头沟转移代币4.7万枚（其中只有1500枚进入了交易所），双重压力叠加之下，在7月5日BTC插针到53.5K，单日跌幅8.5%，是本轮下跌的最低点。7月6日之后，BTC出现反弹，最高到达59500附近。

结合德国政府代币转移的情况，可以清晰地看到，市场对于代币出售的下跌预期要抢先于代币的实际出售时间。当德国政府开始小额持续转出BTC时，市场在持续下跌。6月19日至7月7日一共18天的时间，德国政府卖出了大约1万枚BTC，日均卖出代币556枚。7月5日，德国政府+门头沟双重压力插针后，德国政府的实际抛压变大，但市场的承接能力也在加强。7月8日德国政府出售了将近1.3万枚的BTC，市场插针不破前低，并出现了日线收线上涨。7月8日至7月12日，德国政府流出了大约3.37万枚代币，BTC一直在54K至60K的箱体间做震荡整理。

图：德国政府所持BTC流出示意图（截至7月11日）

BTC ETF需求分析

BTC ETF是当前市场中相对较为稳定的买盘。在本次德国政府抛售代币期间内，从6月19日至7月10日，共有15个工作日。该15日内，ETF共有6日净卖出，卖出4.7亿美元；有9日净买入，买入10.7亿美元，期间净流入为6亿，日平均值为4300万美元。主要的买入发生在7月5日之后，合计超过8亿美元的买盘。

根据上文可知，德国政府在此期间一共向市场抛售了4万枚代币，大约24亿美元。因此，BTC ETF的需求不足以提供足够的承接力量，市场价格出现下跌。

表：BTC ETF单日净流入（6月20日至7月10日）

结论

如果门头沟的赔偿在一个月内售完，市场面临的抛压和德国政府的抛售有较高的相似性，抛售的数量、抛售的时间相当。按照目前ETF的需求，不能提供足够的承接力度，BTC的价格还可能进一步下跌。

如果门头沟的赔偿持续的时间更长（2–3个月），每日进入市场的BTC数量不会特别大，不会造成一次性的下跌。但是，由于持续存在抛压预期，可能会有一段时间的震荡，通过震荡来消化卖盘。这也意味着，短期内难以有主升浪的到来。

目前门头沟的代币真正转入交易所的只有1545枚代币，其余代币还在门头沟的账户中，可以认为实际抛压尚未进入市场。当门头沟所持有的BTC大规模分发到几个交易所地址的时候，可能会引起较大的恐慌下跌，从而形成暴跌插针。具体个人出售时，由于分散以及难以跟踪和观察，反而不一定会引起价格的显著下降。

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