Analyst Alex Krüger: Potential selling pressure from Mt. Gox and the German government! BTC may still fall by more than 10%

This site (120bTC.coM): Mt.Gox, once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, started repayment in July. In addition, the German and American governments also recently transferred large amounts of Bitcoin to the exchange, which is suspected of selling The two are considered by the market to be the main culprits that have brought down the recent trend of Bitcoin. How big is the specific selling pressure? Will the market face a major flash crash? Analyst Alex Krüger published an analysis on the X platform .

The German government has entered the final selling stage

Alex Krüger said that since the German government held 50,000 Bitcoins at the end of June this year, it began to gradually sell these Bitcoins. Starting from June 19, they sold them in small batches , and today (9th), the sales process has been greatly accelerated, and 16,038 Bitcoins have been transferred to agents and exchanges. The selling pressure has also caused the price of Bitcoin to fall by 3.5% (USD 2,000).

As of now, the German government’s Bitcoin balance has dropped to 23,788. This number means that Germany has entered the final stage of Bitcoin selling. Alex Krüger believes that eventually all these Bitcoins will be sold.

Mt.Gox will bring another drop of more than 10%

The scale of the German government’s sell-off has attracted market attention, but how to predict the repayment selling pressure of Mt.Gox until October? Alex Krüger analyzes the Mt.Gox incident. The 141,000 Bitcoins allocated, noting that 95,000 of them will be distributed within 90 days to creditors who choose early distribution and receive a 10% reduction, are distributed as follows among the 95,000 Bitcoins:

• 20,000 allocated to the trust Fund

• 10,000 coins allocated to an exchange in New Zealand (currently in bankruptcy proceedings and will not flow into the market)

• 65,000 coins allocated to individual creditors

Therefore, Alex Krüger estimates based on the following assumptions Market reaction:

• Assume that 30% of the 85,000 are sold (about 25,500 Bitcoins)

• Assume that Mt. /The price relationship is linear

• In view of the recent decline in Bitcoin prices caused by the German government’s sell-off, Alex Krüger believes that if the crypto market absorbs Mt. Gox and the German government’s follow-up of these Bitcoins at one time, it will trigger a 10.5% ( The collapse of (23.7+25.5)/16*0.035=10.5%) means that Bitcoin will fall by another $6,000.

However, Alex Krüger said that although large sell-offs will cause a short-term impact on the market, due to the market's own liquidity and past experience, the market is capable of withstanding and eventually stabilizing.

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