Token Unlocks Worth $280M Could Dent the Altcoin Market, Here\'s Why

The crypto market, especially the altcoin sector, could face wild market volatility induced by token unlocks in July.

In July, the crypto market, particularly the altcoin sector, is likely to experience substantial price movements due to upcoming token unlocks.

According to Token Unlocks, over $280 million in cryptocurrencies will be unlocked within the next seven days, with Aribitrum (ARB) and Aptos (APT) having the largest scheduled unlocks.

Aptos will unlock tokens valued at over $70 million on July 12, while ARB will unlock $66.6 million on July 15. Optimism (OP) will follow closely with $54 million scheduled to be unlocked on July 30.

In less than two weeks, Avalanche (AVAX) will join the list, unlocking $245 million in tokens.

To assess the potential impact of token unlocks on the altcoin market, let's examine how they affected token prices in June.

ARB was among the worst performers after its mid-June unlock of $105 million. As noted by X (formerly Twitter) user DeFi Scholar,

"Effect on the token [ARB]: Moved from 0.92 on the 16th to 0.77 (20% dip)."

While overall market sentiment played a role in ARB's performance during the unlocks, Deribit's report in early June linked the poor performances of ETH L2s like ARB and Optimism to the oversupply created by the large unlocks.

Notably, ARB erased all its 2024 gains and remained below $1 since early June.

The upcoming token supply of $66 million could make it challenging for ARB to break the downtrend line and move above $0.76.

APT also faced significant losses from recent market drawdowns. However, it bounced strongly from $5 and could eye $7 or the previous range-low above $7.5. The unlock schedule could complicate matters.

APT fell 20% after unlocking over $100 million in June. This could potentially repeat, especially if Bitcoin (BTC) fails to extend its recovery and reclaim $60k.

On the other hand, if the negative market sentiment reverses and BTC turns bullish, the impact of the unlocks on altcoins could be minimized.

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