Cycle capital: Mentougou repayment selling pressure analysis

原文作者：duoduo，Cycle capital

门头沟破产案

MtGox成立于2010年7月，是一家日本交易所，币圈最早最大的交易所，交易量占比一度超过80%。2013年，门头沟被盗85万比特币，交易所因此破产，后续陆续找回大约20万枚代币。自2014年开始，针对这20万币，投资者和法院指定受托人开展了冗长的赔偿诉讼。有大约6万枚BTC作为各类费用支付，剩余约14万枚的BTC。

债权交易

事件发生后，在等待结果的漫长时间里，一直有机构在收购门头沟的债权，同时，个人间的债权交易也普遍存在。如2019年，Fortress Investment Group曾广泛向债权人发出询价邮件，按照900美元的价格收购BTC，这是门头沟破产时比特币价格的两倍。债权交易的价格会随着市场行情有所波动，原始债权人如果担心无法得到偿还，是可以通过出售债权来取回部分本金的。

赔付方案

2021年，门头沟通过赔付方案，债权人可以取回交易所剩余价值。

根据赔偿方案，由于被盗资产已经无法追回，门头沟交易所只能赔付债权人原始债权大约23.6%的资产。如果债权人选择接受提前一次性赔偿，则存在折价，赔偿率仅为21%；若不接受，债权人可能还要等待漫长时间，最终获得的赔偿可能会更多，也可能更少。目前，未能找到提前一次性赔偿的债权人比例。

赔偿资产的构成，分为两个部分，一部分是现金，来自日本政府在2017年高点期间售出的BTC所得，一部分是BTC。现金为5%-10%，BTC为95%-90%，具体比例可以选择。可见，90%以上赔付的是BTC。

关于索赔时间（也是BTC进入市场的时间），可能需要两到三个月的时间。一共有5家交易所将接受门头沟用于还款的BTC，再分发到债权人账户中。每家交易所的时间表有所差异。Kraken需要90天，Bitstamp需要60天，BitGo 20天，SBI VC Trade和Bitbank都将在14天内完成付款。这个时间是最长时间，有可能会提前。

另外，提前一次性赔偿的截止日期为2024年10月31日。除非经过法院批准，该时间不会进行修改。

当前进展

2024年5月份，门头沟冷钱包的BTC自2018年之后首次移动，引发市场恐慌。2024年7月5日，门头沟账户地址有4.7万枚的代币进行移动，其中1545枚BTC转入了bitbank，开始进行赔付。当日叠加德国政府抛售BTC，单日最大跌幅超过8%。

截至7月12日，13.8万枚BTC仍然在门头沟的账户地址内，可以认为门头沟的抛压还没有实际进入市场。7月5日的跌幅属于门头沟抛压下跌预期的部分兑现。

图：门头沟账户余额

图：门头沟账户近期转账记录

抛压分析

门头沟债权人会售出一部分BTC，但应该不会售出全部。

从盈利情况来看，按照成本计算，门头沟破产时，BTC价格为485美元。如果是原始债权人，按照当前价格计算，BTC涨幅120倍；门头沟赔付的BTC数量大约是原始持有数量的20%, 因此利润约为24倍左右。即使是债权收购，也有10倍以上的收益，此外债权收购机构可能持有更多的BTC，其长期看好BTC，也不会全部卖出。

从持有者来看，在漫长的诉讼过程中，广泛存在的债权交易市场，给了纸手债权人充分的退出机会。愿意买入债权的人，更多的应该是BTC长期持有者。

假设接受提前一次性偿还的占比为75%，则偿还的BTC总数为105750个，折价为11%，实际用于偿还的BTC为94117个；并假设了30%、50%、70%的抛售比例，以及1至3个月的抛售时间，可以计算不同情况下BTC的抛售数量。如下表所示：

这样的供应量对市场的影响有多大呢？可以参考近期德国政府造成的BTC供应量，以及该时间段内BTC ETF的需求情况来进一步分析。

对比德国政府抛售BTC的市场影响

The German government has been selling the 50,000 BTC it holds through centralized exchanges since June 19. As of July 12, there were 6,394 BTC remaining in its address, which means that approximately 43,700 BTC were sold in 23 days. Based on US$55,000, the value is approximately US$2.4 billion.

During this period, the maximum daily pin drop was about 19% (from 66400 to 53500), and the daily real bar drop was about 14% (from 64800 to 55900). The largest single-day drop occurred on July 5. On that day, Mentougou transferred 47,000 tokens (only 1,500 of which entered the exchange). Under the combined pressure, on July 5, the BTC pin reached 53.5K, and the single The daily decline was 8.5%, the lowest point in this round of decline. After July 6, BTC rebounded, reaching a maximum of around 59,500.

Combined with the situation of the German government token transfer, it can be clearly seen that the market’s downward expectations for the token sale preceded the actual sale time of the token. When the German government began to continuously transfer BTC in small amounts, the market continued to fall. In a total of 18 days from June 19 to July 7, the German government sold approximately 10,000 BTC, with an average daily sale of 556 tokens. On July 5, after the dual pressure of the German government + Mentougou was inserted, the actual selling pressure of the German government became greater, but the market's ability to undertake it was also strengthened. On July 8, the German government sold nearly 13,000 BTC. The market did not break the previous low, and the daily closing line rose. From July 8 to July 12, the German government outflowed approximately 33,700 tokens, and BTC has been consolidating between 54K and 60K.

Chart: BTC outflow chart held by the German government (as of July 11)

BTC ETF demand analysis

BTC ETF is a relatively stable purchase in the current market . During this period of token sales by the German government, there were a total of 15 working days from June 19th to July 10th. During the 15 days, the ETF had 6 net selling days, selling $470 million; there were 9 net buying days, buying $1.07 billion. During the period, the net inflow was 600 million, and the daily average was $43 million. The major buying occurred after July 5, totaling more than $800 million in buying orders.

According to the above, the German government sold a total of 40,000 tokens to the market during this period, amounting to approximately US$2.4 billion. Therefore, the demand for BTC ETF was not enough to provide sufficient capacity, and the market price fell.

Table: BTC ETF single-day net inflow (June 20 to July 10)

Conclusion

If Mentougou compensation is sold out within a month, the market will face There is a high similarity between the selling pressure of the German government and the selling pressure of the German government. The amount and time of the selling are similar. According to the current demand for ETFs, sufficient capacity cannot be provided, and the price of BTC may fall further.

If Mentougou’s compensation lasts longer (2–3 months), the number of BTC entering the market every day will not be particularly large and will not cause a one-time drop. However, due to continued expectations of selling pressure, there may be a period of shock to digest the selling. This also means that it is difficult for the main wave to come in the short term.

Currently, only 1,545 Mentougou tokens have actually been transferred to the exchange, and the remaining tokens are still in Mentougou’s account. It can be considered that the actual selling pressure has not yet entered the market. When the BTC held by Mentougou is distributed to several exchange addresses on a large scale, it may cause a large panic drop, thus forming a plunge pin. When specific individuals sell, due to the dispersion and difficulty in tracking and observing, it may not necessarily cause a significant drop in price.

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