Bitcoin (BTC) Price Will Reach a New All-Time High Before March 2025, Network Economist Timothy Peterson Predicts

Peterson bases his forecast on the analytical framework detailed in his research paper titled "Lowest Price Forward: Why Bitcoin's Price is Never Looking Back."

A new analysis predicts that the Bitcoin price will reach a new all-time high (ATH) before March 2025. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Never Look Back Price” (NLB), which is the last time Bitcoin traded at a particular price point before never declining to that level again.

The analysis, conducted by Timothy Peterson, a respected network economist and prominent author in the field of crypto analytics, was published in a forecast issued via X on Friday. According to Peterson, there is a 90% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH before March 2025.

Peterson, who is known for his works including “Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value,” bases his forecast on the analytical framework detailed in his research paper titled “Lowest Price Forward: Why Bitcoin’s Price is Never Looking Back.” This paper, first published in 2019 and subsequently revised, introduces an innovative approach to understanding the Bitcoin price trajectory by focusing on its historical lowest prices.

The paper introduces the concept of the NLB, which marks the last instance where Bitcoin was traded at a particular price point, after which it never declined to that level again. The analysis in the paper begins at the genesis block and continues up to the present day, tracking the NLB as it shifts higher with each new all-time low.

Peterson argues that the NLB is a more accurate representation of Bitcoin’s “real” price than the current spot price, as it filters out short-term speculative pressures and anomalies that can distort price perceptions. By focusing on the lowest historical prices, the analysis also inherently adopts a conservative approach, underestimating rather than overestimating value, which minimizes the risk of overvaluation and ensures that predictions do not overly rely on optimistic scenarios which might not materialize.

The analysis involves plotting these NLB data points on a lognormal scale adjusted by what Peterson refers to as a “square root time” scale. This unconventional metric facilitates a deeper insight into the long-term growth patterns of Bitcoin, comparing them effectively with the diffusion processes observed in technology adoption across other domains.

At the heart of Peterson’s analysis is Metcalfe’s Law, which he elaborates as “the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of its users.” By applying this principle to Bitcoin, Peterson posits that as the digital currency’s user base expands, its intrinsic value is expected to increase exponentially. The paper details the use of a “square root time” model to align traditional time-value money concepts with the non-linear growth rates typical in network economics, presenting a compelling case for Bitcoin’s future valuation trajectories.

Peterson also addresses potential anomalies and market manipulations, which can distort price perceptions. By focusing on the NLB, the analysis filters out such distortions, offering a purer view of Bitcoin’s value appreciation unaffected by short-term speculative pressures or external shocks such as the COVID-induced market anomalies of 2021.

The prediction of a new all-time high before March 2025 reflects a broader sentiment of confidence in the sustained growth of the Bitcoin network by Peterson. As adoption curves continue to rise and network effects further entrench the value of Bitcoin, the forecast is not merely speculative but grounded in quantifiable and observed historical trends.

Peterson concludes, “As long as adoption continues, Bitcoin’s value — represented by its NLB price — will go up. If adoption is hindered, then the price will stagnate or drop.”

At press time, BTC is trading at $58,192.

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