From airdropping diamond hands to nothing: 70% of airdropped coins have already dropped by the time of TGE

Airdrops played an important role in this cycle.

I’m curious how many tokens launched through airdrops are still trading above their issue price after their first day on the market.

This may answer the question of whether you should hold airdrops (whether holding can be profitable).

I organized the data and only looked at the top 500 coins. Although this morning's prices are used, which may be a bit lagging, they should reflect the overall trend.

Here are the key findings:

• Since the initial issuance, 23 of the 31 tokens have fallen in price, some dramatically

• Only 4 of the 31 tokens have run since the initial issuance Won BTC

• Only 1 token launched in 2024 has outperformed BTC since its initial release

• Two meme-related airdrops were very successful – BONK and DEGEN Despite the current controversy, TIA The price is also much higher than its issuance price, but outperforms BTC

Selling the airdrop tokens for USD or BTC on the issuance day is almost always the right choice. You might get lucky (some would call it skill) and sell during the early post-release rally, but generally speaking, the longer you hold, the worse the performance.

There will always be exceptions, but the odds of holding the right airdrop token are very low, especially relative to BTC. If you're really bullish on a project's long-term prospects, you can almost always buy it at a lower price after the release date. The next bear market may make these coins a better investment. There are some really good items on this list.

Airdrops are not the only reason why these projects’ tokens are falling. Many times, they work with market makers to set valuations too high. Users dump airdrop tokens ruthlessly and soon discover that the valuations they set themselves are complete bullshit.

Many people learned during this cycle that FDV is actually important. Holding an airdrop means you believe there is enough demand for the token to push the price higher if a massive unlock occurs and investors hedge their shorts.

Pimps will sell no matter what the price is because they are just here to withdraw their profits and leave. However, in theory, coins should be able to recover from these “mercenary” exits, but in most cases the data shows that they do not. Of course, some of these coins still have time. This is just a random snapshot and things can change quickly.

People like to complain that many airdrops are poorly designed, but based on this data, it seems difficult to execute an airdrop that won’t negatively impact the coin in the short and medium term (long term TBD).

Two accidental airdrops of meme tokens (with no points program) delivering optimal returns to holders at very low initial valuations. They are both designed to help different ecosystems (Solana and Farcaster).

In the past, we have also seen many meme airdrops instantly return to zero, so of course you cannot assume that meme airdrops will definitely perform better. Unexpected + low valuation may be a better conclusion.

I actually think points programs are here to stay, as they are a very common feature of Web2 and can bring more fun, positivity, and stickiness to the user experience, but I don’t expect airdrops to continue in the same way we’ve seen over the past few years The form seen mid-year exists.

Based on these data, project parties should consider the form of airdrop very carefully, or whether to decide to conduct airdrop.

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