Capriole Investments: Bitcoin's current bull market may have peaked! Many giant whales appeared to destroy the market

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made dovish remarks last night, saying he was satisfied with the progress of the decline in inflation over the past year, but still hopes to see more progress before he has enough confidence to start cutting interest rates, or he may be affected by this. Encouragingly, the four major U.S. stock indexes surged on the 3rd, and the Nikkei Index also reached a new high. However, at the same time, the currency market fell in the opposite direction. Bitcoin reached a low of around $60,660 before noon, and all the gains that started last weekend have been given back.

Many giant whales came out to smash the market

When the currency market was in the downturn, many giant whales began to appear to smash the market. According to the monitoring of on-chain analyst Ember, a certain 19-4 document on the Ethereum spot ETF was released at the end of May. After being approved, whales/institutions that bought ETH and ETH eco-related tokens transferred a variety of ETH eco-tokens worth US$11.57 million to Binance for sale in the past hour, causing these tokens to be different. The degree of decline includes:

• 3.514 million LDO (6.23 million USD)

• 49,700 AA VE (449 USD)

• 319,800 FXS (85 USD).

Ember analysis shows that the whale is obviously betting that the Ethereum spot ETF news can drive ETH-related ecological tokens to rise, so it bought multiple tokens worth tens of millions of U. Now he is selling all these ETH ecological tokens at a loss with "no profit". This is giving up and stopping the loss.

According to TheDataNerd monitoring, when FLOKI plunged more than 30% in the past month, an early FLOKI investor transferred 6.28 billion FLOKI (approximately US$1.1 million) to Binance yesterday for suspected sale.

Chain monitoring shows that dimethyltryptamine.eth, an early buyer of PEPE, has not traded PEPE for more than 10 months, but there was a change in its address this morning, selling 10 billion PEPE (approximately US$112,000), as an early buyer of PEPE, dimethyltryptamine.eth completed the feat of turning US$45,000 into US$26.7 million. The performance was an astonishing +58600%. After selling 10 billion PEPE this morning, the whale is still Holds 1.99 trillion PEPE (approximately $21.9 million).

Why does the currency market continue to slump?

While Powell made dovish remarks and stock markets in the United States, Japan, Taiwan and other countries continued to hit record highs, the currency market continued to slump, which puzzled many people. There may be three major reasons for this phenomenon. The first is When will the Ethereum spot ETF be approved and how much new funds will it bring? Market opinions are mixed.

The second is that under the wave of AI, speculative hot money is more inclined to pour into the stock market rather than the currency market. Youwei Yang, chief economist of BIT Mining, recently pointed out that there is only a certain amount of hot money in the market, and now that this hot money is invested in the field of AI, until there are some convincing narratives or constructive progress in cryptocurrency, it may only continue to be sideways. market, waiting for a major market impact.

The third concern is that Bitcoin is facing huge selling pressure. The bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox announced last month that it would start the Bitcoin repayment process and repay 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH to creditors since July. It is expected to The repayment process will be completed before October this year. At the same time, the U.S. and German governments transferred a large amount of previously seized Bitcoins to exchanges at the end of June, which has caused market concerns.

Has this bull market peaked?

Although most of the market still believes that the bull market is not over yet, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes that the current indicators on multiple chains show that the Bitcoin price has "signs of weakness" and that the current bull market of Bitcoin may have peaked. He listed Three key reasons are pointed out:

1. The inflation rate of long-term holders is close to the critical value: The inflation rate of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) is rising steadily and is close to the critical value of 2.0, which usually means that the inflation rate of long-term holders is close to the critical value of 2.0, which usually means that the inflation rate of long-term holders is close to the critical value during the market cycle. The high probability at the top, currently at 1.9, shows increasing market pressure.

2. Bitcoin dormant traffic indicator rises: The dormant traffic indicator has risen sharply in the past 3 months, highlighting the dormant addresses that have transferred Bitcoin this year. The number of transferred Bitcoins has surged, and the indicator has reached a peak, which usually indicates As the top of the cycle is approaching, the current structure is similar to the tops in 2017 and 2021.

3. Surge in spending: The amount of Bitcoin spent between 7 and 10 years ago, that is, the number of on-chain transfers, suddenly increased sharply. A large number of Bitcoins were transferred on the chain, which indicates that the risk has arrived, with 138,000 Bitcoins being transferred on the chain. Bitcoin was moved on May 28, possibly leading to a sell-off.

Charles Edwards believes that more than $9 billion in Bitcoin was transferred from addresses held for more than 10 years, partly related to Mt. Gox’s preparations to repay creditors, which may increase selling pressure, but he still believes that given the multiple compensation options, The selling pressure on Mt. Gox is still expected to be alleviated.

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