How to spend the garbage time in the currency circle?

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

There is a very popular article recently called "How to Spend the Garbage Time of History".

What is historical garbage time?

In short, it is the moment when a certain period of history violates the laws of economics, and it is difficult for individuals to reverse the situation, and the overall trend seems destined to fail.

For example, Japan’s economy has been stagnant for thirty years since the bubble burst in the 1990s. Young people have no opportunities, and the development of the country and individuals has hit a ceiling.

For example, during the Great Stagnation period in the United States from 1970 to 1982, high inflation, high unemployment and low economic growth coexisted.

For example, the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1989, and even Russia today.

When a grain of ashes from the era falls on an individual’s head, it is like a mountain.

In the face of the general trend, individuals are always insignificant. Buffett became the "stock god" because he was born in the United States and invested in U.S. stocks; the rise of China's wealthy class is riding on the east wind of China's reform and opening up in the past 40 years; some people rely on The reason for investing in altcoins/MEME coins to obtain dozens of times or even higher returns is because the rise of Bitcoin drives market sentiment and brings incremental funds...

But if the entire market or country is under headwinds, No matter how hard an individual tries, it will not help.

In the investment market, "garbage time" is particularly vivid.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, most of the increases are concentrated in a few months, and the increases in those months are concentrated in a few days.

Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee also recently said that Most of Bitcoin’s annual increases occur within 10 days of each year. “If you exclude the 10 best-performing days of the year, Bitcoin will In fact, it’s a negative return.”

All the waiting is just for the most critical ten days.

So, how should individuals deal with the garbage time in the investment market?

In this regard, A-share investors may have quite a bit of experience.

The first method is to lie down.

This is the way most Japanese chose after the economic bubble burst. Under the mountains of the times, personal efforts are very insignificant. Since you can't resist, just lie back and enjoy it. If you can't change the reality, just change it. Own.

In the words of friends in the currency circle, go out and soak in the rain, return to your original life, no longer be kidnapped by the K-line, go for an outing outdoors, date beautiful and handsome men, go and get together with friends...

You Look, exchanges such as Binance/OKX are telling you to "Touch Grass" every day (go out and touch grass, stop living in the Internet stratosphere, and look at the real world).

At this time, it is a blessing in life to stay away from frequent transactions, invest in core assets such as Bitcoin, and hold cash such as USDT to continue financial management.

The second method is to moisten.

For example, in Japan in the 1990s, a large number of companies chose to go overseas and created a second Japan overseas. Many people also chose to go to China to pan for gold, looking for new opportunities in non-garbage time markets.

The same goes for investment. When A-shares are in garbage time, many A-share investors turn to the US stock and crypto markets.

In 2024, when the crypto market is also in garbage time, investors will turn their attention and liquidity to US stocks.

This is not speculation, but the real status quo. The U.S. stock market has absorbed a lot of liquidity in the crypto market this year. Many crypto tycoons worth billions of dollars have invested heavily in Nvidia, Tesla, etc., and have gained a lot. This is also This reflects another current situation: The overall wealth effect of the currency circle this year is far less than that of US stocks.

The third method, Vol.

If the cake does not get bigger, if you want to get more cake, you can only grab the cake from others. This is the roll. You must be ruthless to others, and even more ruthless to yourself.

Volume in the crypto market, typically belongs to on-chain PVP and robbing.

For small retail investors, there are greater opportunities on the chain. After all, in an exchange, your opponents may be market makers, exchanges and project parties, but on a chain with a relatively clear chip structure, everyone Individuals may rely on early participation to become the main force, and then rely on fooling the group of friends to complete the liquidity exit.

It’s just that as the chain becomes more and more complicated, the life cycle of each native dog becomes shorter and shorter, from 1 week to 1 day, or even to 1 hour. This is a more cruel killing, not to mention the chain. Various MEV robots on the market, professional Rug publishing team.

Friends ship online, just come if you have enough rolls.

Finally, the author still wants to say, History has garbage time, but individuals do not.

According to data calculations in the "Millennium History of the World Economy", the per capita GDP of Western Europe basically did not grow in the first millennium AD; it only improved from 1000 to 1500, and after the 18th century, the dry land was pulled out. In the first millennium, China's per capita GDP was slightly higher than that of Western Europe, but it also stagnated for a millennium. This was also the case 900 years ago in the second millennium, and it has only caught up in the past century.

Looking back at history from a higher dimension, mankind has been in the "garbage time of history" for thousands of years. There has been no improvement in productivity, no appreciation of assets, and the efforts of everyone and every generation seem to be "in vain" , like experiencing a long cold winter.

Historic opportunities are often only available to one or two generations, but everyone still has to live and live well.

Perhaps, we have missed the best moment to invest in Bitcoin. At the moment that cannot be changed, perhaps it is still not that bad and the most cost-effective choice.

Finally, a poem by Zhang Yuanqian of the Southern Song Dynasty is very suitable for the occasion:

A gray dog ​​in white clothes turns into a floating cloud,

Eternal fame gathers dust.

It’s good that the sad songs will be drunk,

might as well cherish the remaining spring together.

The scenery is exactly like that of the Central Plains,

The smell is like that of our generation.

You know the bottom line after the rain,

come drunk to win your freedom.

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