Bitcoin explores 58,000 again, the market has reached a critical bull-bear point

In the past 24 hours, the total market value of the crypto market has dropped by $91 billion.

After experiencing a 12-hour long-short game at US$60,000, Bitcoin began a "waterfall" at 9 a.m. today, falling below US$58,000 for a short time, and once again fell to the low of a week ago, with a 24-hour drop of 5.72%. . At the time of writing, Bitcoin is back above $59,100.

In addition to Bitcoin, mainstream altcoins also began to fall. The crypto market liquidated nearly $100 million in one hour, accounting for half of the total in the past 12 hours. The mainstream tokens of the Ethereum ecosystem, such as LDO, ETHFI, and ENS, have fallen between 8% and 20.46% in 24 hours. The Solana ecosystem was not immune, with JTO, WIF, and TNSR all experiencing declines of around 15%.

Already at the bottom, but there is always a reason to fall

Although the market downturn has lasted for a month, the crypto community has accepted that this is the "bottom of a long correction" stage, and Bitcoin volatility is close to a new low since February, but The continued downward signal remains.

David Lawant, director of research at FalconX, wrote in a report: “Current cryptocurrency market dynamics are characterized by low volatility and weak trading volume, when prices start to move towards the edge of the range. When it moves, the order book will be out of balance. "

Bitcoin spot ETF is an important reference for judging market direction. According to data from Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETF has had net outflows for two consecutive days, with a total outflow of US$34.2 million in two days. .

In addition, the lack of new funds entering the market is also an important reason why the market cannot meet market expectations.

The total market value of stablecoins in the crypto market has been growing steadily since the middle of last year, corresponding to the fact that the market at that time also continued to rise, and the signal from bear to bull was obvious. However, since the beginning of May, no new money has entered the crypto market, and the market value of stablecoins has been hovering around $160 billion for more than two months. With insufficient liquidity on the market, there is no buying power to drive the market up.

The mood continues to be depressed, have you bought some?

A week ago, Bitcoin hit $58,000. A week later, Bitcoin fell to this level again. Is it a correction or the end of a bull market? Market views are mixed.

From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin’s RSI (relative strength index) on both the 4-hour and daily lines has experienced bottom divergence. This means that the price of Bitcoin may have fallen too much in the short term, and today’s downward selling pressure is not as strong as that on June 24, and a rebound may occur.

The market sentiment is too pessimistic, is it time to buy? According to the analysis of crypto KOL Ignas, the price of Bitcoin is being artificially lowered, and retail investors and investment managers are tempted to sell as a hedge through deceptive selling orders from giant whales.

Just yesterday, CryptoQuant released a report stating that for most of the time since the halving, Bitcoin miners have been paid "extremely low" and transaction fee income has dropped to only 3.2% of total daily income. It was the lowest share in three months. After insufficient incentives, miners will begin to "surrender" one after another, shut down underperforming equipment, and begin to sell Bitcoin to hedge risks, which historically usually means that Bitcoin will see a bottom signal.

But there are also various signals suggesting that Bitcoin may continue to fall.

Looking at the net flows of Bitcoin ETFs, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said in his latest report that the average entry price for Bitcoin ETF buyers is estimated to be $60,000 to $61,000. Therefore, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 yesterday, it may have triggered a wave of ETF liquidations, further dragging Bitcoin prices down.

For example, Markus Thielen believes that Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly reversal indicators indicate a broader correction, and its price may further correct to $55,000. Andrew Kang, co-founder of crypto venture capital firm Mechanism Capital, sees an even lower bottom and believes Bitcoin could see an extreme correction to the $40,000 range.

The market still maintains confidence in the long-term price of Bitcoin. Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin could hit an all-time high in August and hit $100,000 in time for the U.S. presidential election in November. Analysts at the bank expect a Trump victory to push Bitcoin prices higher, while maintaining price targets of $150,000 and $200,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year and 2025, respectively. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee also stuck to his prediction that Bitcoin will hit $150,000.

"It's too difficult to make money" and "I'm sorry for my family" are discussions that often appear in the community this month. For retail investors, this bull market is really difficult.

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