Bitcoin (BTC) Market Bottom Signals Emerge as the Cryptocurrency Rebounds from Recent Lows
- 王林Original
- 2024-07-12 10:24:26461browse
In recent analysis by Bitfinex exchange analysts, indications suggest that Bitcoin may have stabilized following a significant downturn in June, possibly marking a local bottom for the cryptocurrency.
Recent analysis by Bitfinex exchange analysts suggests that Bitcoin may have stabilized following a downturn in June, possibly marking a local bottom for the cryptocurrency.
This assessment comes as Bitcoin’s value plunged below its 120-day average on July 3, reaching a low of $53,219. The decline was largely driven by concerns over the initiation of Mt. Gox's creditor repayments and other market uncertainties.
According to the Bitfinex report, despite Mt. Gox not having distributed around 94,457 BTC (about 67% of the total Bitcoin acquired for creditors), recent market data indicates that the cryptocurrency might have reached its lowest point.
Moreover, the sell-off was influenced by the German law enforcement agency Bundeskriminalamt's (BKA) decision to liquidate seized Bitcoin on exchanges, prompting significant sales from various investor groups.
However, Bitfinex claims that the overall impact of Bitcoin sold by the German government is relatively minor compared to the total market activity since 2023.
Analysts noted that the total value of Bitcoin transactions since then amounts to $224 billion, with only $9 billion coming from government-seized Bitcoin, which is just 4% of the total realized capitalization.
In addition, the actual influence of these government transactions on the market is limited, with only hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin being moved to exchanges, which is a small fraction of the broader market volume, highlighting the minimal supply overhang from the government-seized Bitcoin and its limited market impact.
Supporting the notion of a market bottom are key financial metrics, such as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and negative funding rates. SOPR is a measure of the realized profits or losses of investors by comparing the USD value of spent coins against their acquisition costs.
As of July 6, the SOPR for short-term holders was at 0.97, indicating that these investors are generally not selling their holdings at a loss.
Furthermore, the average funding rate across all Bitcoin perpetual trading pairs has turned negative for the first time since the last market bottom on May 1.
Historically, the combination of negative funding rates with low SOPR values for short-term holders typically signals that the market might be nearing a reversal point from its downward trend.
Negative funding rates often indicate strong selling pressure or a dominance of sellers in the market. Nevertheless, this can also suggest that the market is potentially oversold.
When this condition coincides with a recovering SOPR, it often marks a foundational level where the market begins to stabilize, suggesting that a recovery could be imminent.
According to Bitfinex's analysis, these indicators collectively suggest that Bitcoin’s recent pricing challenges might be subsiding, setting the stage for potential upward momentum in the near future.
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