Mt.Gox crash hits, BTC drops 10% in 24H, falling below US$54,000, where is the bottom?

At noon today, Bitcoin briefly fell below 54,000 USDT, reaching as low as 53,269 USDT, a new low since February 26 this year. The maximum drop in 24H was more than 10%. As of press time, it has rebounded to 64,600 USDT. Altcoins are even more "horrible", with an average decline of about 10%. The real-time market price of OKX is as follows:

• ETH dropped to a low of 2806 USDT, and is currently trading at 2881.61 USDT, with a 24H drop of 8.01%;
• SOL has dropped to a low of 120.65 USDT, and is currently trading at 126.74 USDT, with a 24H drop of 6.38%;
• PEPE fell to a low of 0.000008221 USDT, and is currently trading at 0.000008326 USDT, with a 24H drop of 12.58%;
• OP fell to a low of 1.22 USDT, and is currently trading at 1.3232 USDT, with a 24H drop of 13.36%;
• STRK fell to a low of 0.448 8 USDT is currently trading at 0.4951 USDT, down 15.76% in 24H;

CoinGecko data shows that due to the decline in the overall market, the total market value of cryptocurrency has shrunk to US$2.08 trillion, down 9% in 24H.

In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the amount of liquidated positions across the entire network has reached as high as 678 million US dollars, of which the vast majority were long positions liquidated, amounting to 588 million US dollars. Among them, the liquidation amount of BTC was US$226 million, and the liquidation amount of ETH was US$166 million.

Mt.Gox repayment, US and German shipments, ETF outflows

This round of market decline is mainly due to "Mt.Gox" repayment and US and German government BTC shipments.

After multiple Mt.Gox wallets participated in the small transfer test yesterday, this morning Mt.Gox (address starting with 1HeHLv) transferred more than 47228.7 BTC to a new address (starting with 1L7Xbx), worth approximately US$2.71 billion. The address subsequently transferred more than 47,200 BTC to 2 addresses, including:

• transferred 44,500 BTC (USD 2.55 billion) to the 16ArP3...VqdF address;
• transferred 2,700 BTC (USD 154.8 million) ) to its internal address 1JbezD...APs6.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa monitoring, Mt.Gox transferred 1,544 BTC to the new address 1PKGG...szwzV (worth US$84.87 million) two hours ago. The address is suspected to belong to the exchange Bitbank. This move signaled that Mt. Gox was shipping, and Bitcoin also fell in response, falling to 53269 USDT. Mt.Gox’s multiple token transfers in the past two days have intensified the market’s panic over its sell-off, which has become the main factor causing today’s market decline.

Additionally, on-chain data shows that the German government recently moved more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp, in recent days, a move that has exacerbated market volatility. Moreover, according to Arkham monitoring, the US government wallet address (starting with 349c6) transferred 237 BTC, equivalent to approximately US$13.67 million, to the address starting with bc1qvc yesterday afternoon. Changes in the currency holding addresses of the U.S. and German governments have also intensified the market's concerns about future market conditions.

In addition, Bitcoin ETF spot prices have also experienced net outflows in recent trading days, with 9 Bitcoin ETFs reducing their holdings by a total of 609 Bitcoins, worth approximately US$35 million. According to CryptoQuant data, approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin with a holding period of 3-6 months was transferred during this decline. Analyst Cauê Oliveira noted that this represents selling pressure from some entities that bought at the beginning of the year, or that speculators targeting Bitcoin ETFs and halving expectations are being purged.

Due to the combined effects of multiple reasons, the crypto market fell further.

Future expectations: Trump's taking office may change the market decline

The main reason for the current market decline is Mt. Gox shipments, but the market may have over exaggerated its impact.

Vijay Ayyar, head of consumer growth for Asia Pacific at Gemini, said the overall impact of Mt. On the one hand, some individual holders will receive Bitcoin immediately, and on the other hand, there will be "significant amounts" of Bitcoin paid to the claims fund. Those funds then allocate the cryptocurrencies to their limited partners, so the entire process can take a while, adding a time element to the impact on prices.

And Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn also holds the same view, believing that the number of Bitcoins ultimately compensated by Mt. Gox will be less than people think, which means that the selling pressure will be smaller than the market expects. And the vast majority of creditors he spoke to said they will be paid in kind, that is, in cryptocurrency rather than fiat currency, they will also primarily hold these assets, and do not think this group of people will do a lot of sell off.

Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said that Mt. Gox repayment may initially put pressure on the crypto market while it is ongoing, but the market may recover from August. Because FTX repayments are imminent after this, it is possible that creditors will reinvest the funds in crypto assets.

Wintermute founder and CEO Evgeny Gaevoy posted on One factor lies in German government shipments. In response, Tron founder Justin Sun posted on the X platform that he was willing to negotiate with the German government to purchase all of his BTC off-site to minimize the impact on the market. Meanwhile, German MP Joana Cotar strongly criticized the government’s move to sell large amounts of Bitcoin. He also stated that the German government should reconsider this strategy and discuss Bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency with the United States.

As for ETF fund outflows, compared with the net fund outflows in previous weeks, yesterday’s fund outflows were more of a market adjustment.

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said that this cycle is different and the sources of funds are different. Spot Bitcoin ETFs currently account for a quarter of the total spot trading volume, which means that new funds are entering the market more than ever before. More mature, I believe there will be more mature funds in the future. Mature funds usually have diamond hands, and there are still many institutional capitals waiting to enter this field, and channels are now open for them.

The most important factors affecting future market trends are the results of the US election and expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.

Market analysts believe that if Trump succeeds in the election, the Russia-Ukraine war may come to an end. The end of the Russia-Ukraine war will inevitably bring about a rise in the overall global market, and the crypto market may usher in a wave of rise. In addition, Trump, as a crypto-friendly person, may further increase the acceptance of the crypto industry in the mainstream after taking office, thereby increasing the positive expectations for the crypto industry.

In addition, the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut is a major benefit that the market has been looking forward to this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed his views on a rate cut in 2024 on various occasions. In a speech in April, he cited a cautious approach to rate cuts and said it "might be appropriate" to start cutting rates that year. In addition, he may give a clearer hint on the timetable for rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting.

In general, the current market situation has shown signs of decline. In addition to the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate cuts, we can only look forward to the benefits brought by the progress of the US election. From the current point of view, Trump's chances of winning are still relatively high. Looking forward to 11 Monthly prices rose.

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