Biden\'s Odds of Dropping Out Jump to 55% on PolyMarket as Obama Raises \'Concerns\' About Presidential Campaign
- 王林Original
- 2024-07-04 10:33:18808browse
Traders are now giving a 55% chance President Biden abandons his campaign and a 42% chance he does it before the Democratic convention
The chance that President Biden will drop out of the race for the White House hit an all-time high of 55% on Polymarket after former President Barack Obama expressed concerns about the Biden campaign and debate performance.
Traders are now giving a 55% chance Biden abandons his campaign and a 42% chance he does it before the Democratic convention.
The chance that Biden drops out of the race for the White House hit an all-time high of 55% on Polymarket after former President Barack Obama expressed concerns about the Biden campaign and debate performance.
The Washington Post reported late Tuesday that former President Barack Obama, concerned about Biden’s reelection chances after a poor debate performance, as well as highlighting his belief that Trump has strong electability, has been privately advising and supporting him while publicly expressing confidence in his campaign.
The report also noted that Obama’s concerns extend beyond the debate stage and into the campaign organization itself, with the former president said to be making calls to the campaign and offering advice on how to improve its performance.
However, the Post report adds that Obama has not explicitly raised the possibility of Biden dropping out of the race, and that the president’s advisers are confident he will remain in the campaign throughout the election cycle.
Despite this, traders on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket are now giving Biden a 55% chance of dropping out of the race, up from around 40% at the start of the week.
The market is also giving a 42% chance that Biden drops out before the Democratic convention, scheduled for August 19. Bettors are less sure as to whether Biden will drop out after the convention, with the market giving a 13% chance of this scenario.
The high probability assigned to Biden dropping out of the race is likely due to a combination of factors, including his poor performance in the first presidential debate, the difficulties faced by the Biden campaign, and the belief among some Democrats that Biden should drop out to allow a younger candidate to run for the presidency.
However, it is important to note that the Polymarket prediction markets are not always accurate and should be used for entertainment purposes only.
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