Opinion: Bull markets are like SEX, they feel best before they're over

Author: Crypto, Distilled

Compiled by Deep Tide TechFlow

The biggest trick of the market is to make everyone think that everything is over before the real fun begins.

“Bull markets are like SEX, they feel best before they’re over.” - Warren Buffett.

Here are 7 reasons why the most interesting phase hasn’t begun yet.

The Market’s Biggest Trick

Before we dive into these reasons, let’s get a little background.

The market’s biggest trick is to make people think the fun is over before it begins, caused by the so-called “Wall of Worry”.

What is the Wall of Worry?

During a bull market, the market moves up along a wall of worry and doubt.

Every piece of pessimistic news adds another brick to the wall of the uphill battle that determines the nature of the bull market, with worries the fuel that drives prices higher.

Build a Wall of Worry

A moderate amount of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) is healthy in a bull market. It keeps some on the sidelines, providing fuel for a market rebound once the doubters turn into believers.

While $BTC is near all-time highs, doubts remain regarding consumer crypto adoption, global liquidity, $ETHETF, and altcoins.

The biggest opportunity

How to profit from it? Stay calm during uncertain times, panic will only narrow your perspective.

Facing danger calmly allows us to assess the situation and discover potential opportunities.

Now, let’s dive into these 7 reasons.

1. More liquidity is coming

The main reason why the cycle peak may not have been reached yet is liquidity.

With the easing of global macro policies, liquidity is expected to surge in 2025.

An increase in financial flows usually leads to an increase in cryptocurrency prices.

2. The market ended with a bang

In the past, obvious parabolic patterns would appear in the final stages of bull markets.

While history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, there are often similarities, and so far we haven’t seen such a climax.

According to @Grayscale, only about 30% of altcoins are up this year.

3. The Pattern of the “Banana Zone”

A “Banana Zone” refers to a period when asset prices surge, which has been reliably observed in past cycles.

This phenomenon is driven by the 4-year global liquidity cycle since 2008, which typically peaks in the fall.

Currently, we are in the summer phase.

(Credit to @RaoulGMI)

4. Post-Halving Performance

Bitcoin’s post-halving performance suggests there’s more room to go.

Historical data shows that the macro peak usually does not occur until 200 days after the halving.

Currently, fluctuations after the halving are normal.

(Credit to @RaoulGMI)

5. Four-Year Cycle Theory

The four-year cycle is like astrology for cryptocurrencies, it may just be affected by global liquidity cycles and election seasons on the market.

If history repeats itself, the high is expected to be in October 2025 (approximately 16-17 months later).

(Credit to @BobLoukas)

6. Foreshadow Fallacy

Since there are more “foreshadows” in the cryptocurrency market, the signals seem to come earlier each cycle.

This makes it easy for people to mistakenly believe that the cycle has ended, when in fact the new phase has not yet begun.

New phases usually bloom later in the cycle with a sense of experimentation and optimism.

(Translator's Note: "Previous Shadow Fallacy" refers to the fact that in the cryptocurrency market, as early signals appear earlier and earlier, people tend to mistakenly believe that the market cycle has ended, but in fact the new market stage is still there. There is no beginning. This phenomenon causes investors to miss market opportunities in the later period because they prematurely believe that the market has reached a peak or is about to fall back. The most interesting and dangerous periods are often accompanied by extreme fanaticism.

7. In the first half of 2024, the social risk of the market is very low - the market is not overheated, but appears extremely deserted.
   Currently, there is barely any interest from retail investors in altcoins.

(Credit to @intocryptoverse)

Summary

The final stages of a bull market

are usually the most dramatic gains.

A wall of worry can make people mistakenly think that the

• bull market

  is over.

• Liquidity expected to rise, Banana Zone could be coming?

  The 4-year cycle suggests that the macro top may occur in 2025.

Purely educational content, not financial advice.

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